The Tropical Fruit Forum
Tropical Fruit => Tropical Fruit Discussion => Topic started by: Future on September 04, 2017, 05:46:11 PM
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This looks...serious. Any members in the currently projected path? Sending out positive vibes to all...
http://www.weather.bm/maps/TropicalStormInfo.asp?WTNTnum=WTNT21&20179422450 (http://www.weather.bm/maps/TropicalStormInfo.asp?WTNTnum=WTNT21&20179422450)
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Yes it looks serious, I am hoping it turns out to sea :(. I am hearing Category 5 potential not good at all!
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I think quite a few of us are on its projected path since pretty much all of FL is the projected path. I figure tomorrow or Wed we might have a better projected path. The majority of paths that I have seen as of now have it running up the the east coast and popping out in the Atlantic near Cocoa. So pretty much all of south and central FL will be affected at least somewhat.
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Am watching the models right now and I am praying that the UKMET and HWRF are the most accurate ones. Those two would place the storm south of Miami and perhaps heading into the golf. Unfortunately, as these things go, its either us or somebody else. I just can not help to wish for it to be "not us."
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If it continues the same path I will pack up and leave for NYC by Wednesday with the Family ! ..
Good Luck to everyone!
Ed
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Wish you all safe!
Sy Tan
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There was a raid on the bottled water at Home Depot today. Where residents in this area were woefully unprepared for Wilma's attack, folks here tend to over-prepare nowadays. Those post-Wilma memories of waiting literally 8 hours at the gas station for a few gallons of gas and shopping the only open wal-mart in the county under the light of flashlights and "cash only" purchases really molded a generation.
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The projected path is literally as much of a worst case scenario as it can get for S. FL. I wont mind it nearly as much if it stays Cat 2 or less. I'm pretty well prepared supply wise. Cat 4 or 5 and it's gonna be a catastrophic nightmare. If the SE FL coast gets wacked by a 5 it's game over. Can't prep enough for a storm of that strength. I took a direct hit by Andrew which was much smaller sized and that really sucked. Also took direct hits by Katrina and Wilma but those paled in comparison. Hasn't been a Cat 5 landfall on US in over 20 yrs so we may be due. I don't think it'll reach Cat 5 but 4 would be close enough.
My new flourishing banana plants and papaya trees may get wiped out before I can get a first harvest. :(
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I think by Thursday you guys will have a much better idea where this thing is going to go, at the moment its moving west at a snails pace of 13 mph. it is expected to speed its movement up once it is north of Puerto Rico, and it is that movement, how fast it goes and when its starts that will determine whee it will be by the weekend.
also the cone still gives it a chance to go over PR and DR, if it hits these Islands the mountains will greatly reduce its power. and probably steer it off its present course a bit.
Mother is in Hollywood ( east of us 1 ) and have told my sister that if it looks like it will hit there, that they should evacuate, more inland. I have seen old pictures of Hollywood under a few feet of water. just would not be safe for her.
anyway, every day that passes we get a more accurate picture of where Irma will go.
Already the projection has changed from the 5pm to the 11pm update, its now further west , if it keeps going, it might miss Florida entirely, and go into the Gulf.
http://www.ventusky.com/?p=25.2;-75.8;5&l=gust&t=20170910/15 (http://www.ventusky.com/?p=25.2;-75.8;5&l=gust&t=20170910/15)
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This the best forum for tracking Irma, comprised of amateur and pro weather geeks. Posts are frequent with lots of info.
http://hardcoreweather.com/thread-26464-page-10.html (http://hardcoreweather.com/thread-26464-page-10.html)
Here's the U.S. Surface Analysis. 48 hrs. steering currents (lows/highs) show it deflecting off to the right.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Surface/Current.aspx (http://www.intellicast.com/National/Surface/Current.aspx)
I hope you guys are OK and this monster doesn't hit Fl. OR go into the gulf. :-\
Good luck,
Mark
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It's Cat 5 now and aiming for Florida by the end of the week.
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It's Cat 5 now and aiming for Florida by the end of the week.
A direct hit by a Cat 5 would leave no vegetation extending beyond 10-15 ft high aside from maybe Palms and few others. I witnessed this first-hand with Andrew. It was as if a giant machete just swept the entire southern half of the county.
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180mph winds and the hurricane is going annular. Which means the eye wall is closed off completely and protection against dry air and degrading conditions. Most models have this going between the west and east coast of Florida.
This is horrible worst case scenario it will make Harvey flooding look like a better option.
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180mph winds and the hurricane is going annular. Which means the eye wall is closed off completely and protection against dry air and degrading conditions. Most models have this going between the west and east coast of Florida.
This is horrible worst case scenario it will make Harvey flooding look like a better option.
Yeah, I think flooding would be the better option if I had flood insurance. Those winds will wreck many structures.
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There was a raid on the bottled water at Home Depot today. Where residents in this area were woefully unprepared for Wilma's attack, folks here tend to over-prepare nowadays. Those post-Wilma memories of waiting literally 8 hours at the gas station for a few gallons of gas and shopping the only open wal-mart in the county under the light of flashlights and "cash only" purchases really molded a generation.
Yes agree that food and water after the storm should be little problem in South Florida as stores now have generator systems etc. to handle off grid electric needs. I believe most if not all Publix stores in South Florida have off grid electric ready after the storm. That is a lot of stores in South Florida. Many other retailers have sytems similar and also gas stations to pump gas in South Florida but I do not know how many.
Some gas stations that have been listed: https://www.scribd.com/document/358021805/gas-stations-with-generators-in-pbc#from_embed (https://www.scribd.com/document/358021805/gas-stations-with-generators-in-pbc#from_embed)
More:: http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Miami-Dade-Gas-Stations-With-Generators-or-Generator-Capabilities-396065601.html (http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Miami-Dade-Gas-Stations-With-Generators-or-Generator-Capabilities-396065601.html)
http://www.tbo.com/news/suncoast-news/2008/may/16/wp-publix-paying-big-bucks-for-backup-power-ar-145540/ (http://www.tbo.com/news/suncoast-news/2008/may/16/wp-publix-paying-big-bucks-for-backup-power-ar-145540/)
Variety of stores grocery & gas with generators listed::: https://www.miamidade.gov/hurricane/library/stores-with-generators.pdf (https://www.miamidade.gov/hurricane/library/stores-with-generators.pdf)
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Boy this Irma at Cat.-5 looks nasty hope all who might be affected are able to get to safe area. Positive thought's going out to all in path :(
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There was a raid on the bottled water at Home Depot today. Where residents in this area were woefully unprepared for Wilma's attack, folks here tend to over-prepare nowadays. Those post-Wilma memories of waiting literally 8 hours at the gas station for a few gallons of gas and shopping the only open wal-mart in the county under the light of flashlights and "cash only" purchases really molded a generation.
Yes agree that food and water after the storm should be little problem in South Florida as stores now have generator systems etc. to handle off grid electric needs. I believe most if not all Publix stores in South Florida have off grid electric ready after the storm. That is a lot of stores in South Florida. Many other retailers have sytems similar and also gas stations to pump gas in South Florida but I do not know how many.
Some gas stations that have been listed: https://www.scribd.com/document/358021805/gas-stations-with-generators-in-pbc#from_embed (https://www.scribd.com/document/358021805/gas-stations-with-generators-in-pbc#from_embed)
More:: http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Miami-Dade-Gas-Stations-With-Generators-or-Generator-Capabilities-396065601.html (http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Miami-Dade-Gas-Stations-With-Generators-or-Generator-Capabilities-396065601.html)
http://www.tbo.com/news/suncoast-news/2008/may/16/wp-publix-paying-big-bucks-for-backup-power-ar-145540/ (http://www.tbo.com/news/suncoast-news/2008/may/16/wp-publix-paying-big-bucks-for-backup-power-ar-145540/)
Variety of stores grocery & gas with generators listed::: https://www.miamidade.gov/hurricane/library/stores-with-generators.pdf (https://www.miamidade.gov/hurricane/library/stores-with-generators.pdf)
Some gas stations do have backup gens. Problem is having fuel. Same with Publix, power but shortage of goods. Depends on road conditions after hurricane strike. Strong storm strike will leave roads un-passable for a few days possibly.
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Hope you folks are reading these posts and checking out the images and graphics.
http://hardcoreweather.com/thread-26464-page-10.html (http://hardcoreweather.com/thread-26464-page-10.html)
Based on a cold front's influence I just don't see this thing going into Florida as opposed to being turned east.
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Hope you folks are reading these posts and checking out the images and graphics.
http://hardcoreweather.com/thread-26464-page-10.html (http://hardcoreweather.com/thread-26464-page-10.html)
Based on a cold front's influence I just don't see this thing going into Florida as opposed to being turned east.
I've read the last 2 pages but haven't seen anything that would lead to a different result than what is being forcasted presently.
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Computer models have become very accurate in recent years.
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Computer models have become very accurate in recent years.
Yes, until they shift. Regardless, I expect an impact of some sort from Irma. Short of a big change in track, I doubt I'll get out of this one unscathed.
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Well, I was supposed to be in the Keys for a week starting this Friday. >:(
Guess I will be sticking around home waiting to see if I need to board up or help the parents with their house.
Hope everyone in the path stays safe.
DM
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Computer models have become very accurate in recent years.
Did anyone else notice the constant weather station on xfinity 213 South Fl Weather Headlines the blonde weather reporter at about 1:30p.m. telling everyone this is a very strong CYCLONE passing islands and heading toward Florida???
I believe someone informed her she must have slept through the class explaining cyclones are in other oceans like the pacific.... Hurricanes are in the Atlantic Ocean... funny..... She probably just made a mistake on TV....but still funny since she is the expert...
But yes weather reporting due to better equipment (radars etc. with planes and better measuring of pressure changes) showing high pressure areas over the Atlantic rotating clockwise pushing Irma westward while it is south of and close to the High pressure center and low pressure areas and fronts rotating winds counterclockwise and that is of course also a low pressure front coming over the U.S. toward Fl. to eventually turn it to the North.
So the models take these two fronts etc. into consideration and distance from the center of high and low pressure areas to approximately guess when the two areas will push it North.... But most of us would know it will head North eventually with the given 2 areas converging.
Agree with yes till they shift.... as pressures in each area and wind speed and how fast the fronts move or slow will change and thus the models also must change.
If they end up saying the cool front stops across florida.... That would probably be the areas to expect Irma to cross from the gulf and across florida.... Probably just depends on if the front stalls or even almost dissipates and thus allowing Irma to enter the Gulf etc.. If the front really retracts north with little influence affecting Irma.. who knows where it could go once it enters the Gulf as it would now also be very far away from the Bermuda High pressure winds...
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Winds sustained at 185mph will devastate many islands in its path. I've seen the eye of 3 Cat 3s in my life. Highest winds were 155mph. But Cat 4 or 5...send these people your prayers.
Who do we know on the forum in its Caribbean path?
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185 mph wind will devastate All in its path. I was here in Florida during Andrew and 160 mph break most trees or strips them of all small branches and knows most to the ground
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Winds sustained at 185mph will devastate many islands in its path. I've seen the eye of 3 Cat 3s in my life. Highest winds were 155mph. But Cat 4 or 5...send these people your prayers.
Who do we know on the forum in its Caribbean path?
Tangtonic is on St. Croix:
http://tropicalfruitforum.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5127 (http://tropicalfruitforum.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5127)
and Caesar is in Puerto Rico:
http://tropicalfruitforum.com/index.php?action=profile;u=3491 (http://tropicalfruitforum.com/index.php?action=profile;u=3491)
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Winds sustained at 185mph will devastate many islands in its path. I've seen the eye of 3 Cat 3s in my life. Highest winds were 155mph. But Cat 4 or 5...send these people your prayers.
Who do we know on the forum in its Caribbean path?
Tangtonic is on St. Croix:
http://tropicalfruitforum.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5127 (http://tropicalfruitforum.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5127)
and Caesar is in Puerto Rico:
http://tropicalfruitforum.com/index.php?action=profile;u=3491 (http://tropicalfruitforum.com/index.php?action=profile;u=3491)
Abimael is also in Puerto Rico along with other friends of the forum. Chicomorales is in St. Maarten? which might get first impact
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Regards
Here in Puerto Rico we are preparing for the worst, this monster will pass very close to the north coast of PR and the friends of Vieques and Culebra is not going to go very well. Already the government said that if that hurricane happens well near PR it will see sites that can be up to 4 months without electricity, for Hurricane George where we live we were 27 days without electricity
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Regards
Here in Puerto Rico we are preparing for the worst, this monster will pass very close to the north coast of PR and the friends of Vieques and Culebra is not going to go very well. Already the government said that if that hurricane happens well near PR it will see sites that can be up to 4 months without electricity, for Hurricane George where we live we were 27 days without electricity
Abimael good luck my friend!!!!
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This is a big deal if the projections are correct. We always plan for the worst and hope for the best. I might be in the EOC for onslaught or recovery for this event.
For those who can and like to pray, pray it weakens or for a major miracle that it hangs a hard right and stays a fish storm. Anything can happen.
Regarding going into the gulf, my fear is where will it come out? Texas, Louisiana, back to Florida? All very bad options.
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Many models now seem to have the storm heading north, east of the Florida coast, which is better news for Florida, but not so good for South Carolina.
again I have been monitoring this all day, at the 5 day forecast is all over the place, sometimes shows the storm going into the Golf, others up the middle of Fla, and the latest over the Bahamas, east.
I think that once its past PR and over the DR, ( Thursday afternoon ) you guys should have a pretty accurate prediction by then.
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Good luck to everybody! Hope it makes a hard right. Not so good for the Bahamas, but probably the trajectory of least destruction.
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This is a big deal if the projections are correct. We always plan for the worst and hope for the best. I might be in the EOC for onslaught or recovery for this event.
For those who can and like to pray, pray it weakens or for a major miracle that it hangs a hard right and stays a fish storm. Anything can happen.
Regarding going into the gulf, my fear is where will it come out? Texas, Louisiana, back to Florida? All very bad options.
Which ESF? I'm at the SEOC under ESF8... doesn't look good from our end either. A lot of the staffing for our sheltering operations are going to be stretched. I'm hoping my trees on the west central fl coast don't see hurricane or tropical storm force winds, but obviously trees are replaceable. Thoughts and prayers to all those in South fl and the keys in particular.
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I hope Irma takes the path with least destruction. I agree that those in its path should plan for the worst and hope for the best. Stay safe everyone!
Simon
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My prayers are with you all.
Hope you the best luck.
Remember:
Money and properties are hard to recover, but it can be done. Life not.
Just fight to keep yourself and your familly safe.
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I am suddenly seeing quite a few tracks from various weather local agencies saying the storm track will be taking a massive right turn. Will likely still impact Miami but will be jumping out into the Atlantic and pulling a Mathew and either hugging the east coast up to GA and the Carolinas(one has it hitting the GA/SC border and heading into Tennessee) or curling out into the Atlantic.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dm3a27zRdFQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dm3a27zRdFQ)
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I am suddenly seeing quite a few tracks from various weather local agencies saying the storm track will be taking a massive right turn. Will likely still impact Miami but will be jumping out into the Atlantic and pulling a Mathew and either hugging the east coast up to GA and the Carolinas(one has it hitting the GA/SC border and heading into Tennessee) or curling out into the Atlantic.
That's what I alway expected. Of course I still spent $200 getting my generator going that I haven't touched since 2004 and buying enough gas to run it for 3-4 days but hopefully none of it will be needed.
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All of Florida hopes it does a Mathew... a hard Mathew.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119059&start=8220 (http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119059&start=8220)
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Every major track I have seen tonight is putting it 35ish miles east of me on monday morning as a 3. Oddly, I am seeing a lot of notices from news stations on social media that are advising people not to evacuate if they are not in danger of flooding. Most homes should survive wind, water is a different story. Essentially they dont want everyone tying up the interstates that doesnt have to be.
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/235728.shtml?cone#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/235728.shtml?cone#contents)
From the National Hurricane Center (NOAA), current predictions...
(https://s26.postimg.cc/nln0uel45/2017-09-06_235728_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png) (https://postimg.cc/image/nln0uel45/)
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Remember: Most injuries during a hurricane occur when people are trying to do exterior repairs during the storm.
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Not to take away any well wishes to our friends in the Caribbean Islands, Florida, etc. But I was just curious on the plant nurseries- what is their prep for this kind of event? I can't imagine how labor intensive this would be for the large ones. Please take care everyone! Best wishes for a swing-and-a-miss on this storm. Best regards, Chris
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3:35Am and Santo Domingo is pretty calm at the moment. I don't expect more than 50 mph gusts here in the south of the Island. I moved all my potted plants to the side of the house that has a narrow passage. they should be safe there.
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The traffic is flowing north on the turnpike with Canoe Creek the trouble spot as everyone has to refuel in the Orlando area. This is a major choke point and better to be on 95 through this region
Possible routes around problems check local listings first. 70 west to N441 will get you to St.Cloud and can get back to 95 from there. Goes through yeehaw junction and little else but can out back to 95 and vero beach at this point
Good Luck travelers best tip is refuel early before Orlando and avoid Orlando if possible as it can be a wait on normal days through here. 95 to at least hwy 40 before crossing over to 75 is easier, past that even better.
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Tom Terry has it going east of the Cape as of this morning. Might actually have to be at work on Monday at this rate. I really wanted to have a Hurricane party that day.
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Its not looking good the tracks are now putting the hurricane on course for a direct hit on south Florida. Before the tracks were starting to trend to the east.
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Will be watching/waiting for the storm to start it's north turn on Saturday. The sooner it starts to head north, the better for everyone. If it hasn't started to turn north by around noon on Saturday, at least part of the eye wall will very likely impact S FL. If it doesn't start to turn north until later Saturday evening the direct hit would likely be on the west coast of S FL.
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Latest euro model just came out (has been more accurate than the GFS model throughout the entire storm so far). The latest euro model has it much more west and right up all of our you know whats
(https://s26.postimg.cc/94d77m79x/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh1-72.gif) (https://postimg.cc/image/94d77m79x/)
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Latest euro model just came out (has been more accurate than the GFS model throughout the entire storm so far). The latest euro model has it much more west and right up all of our you know whats
(https://s26.postimg.cc/94d77m79x/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh1-72.gif) (https://postimg.cc/image/94d77m79x/)
This forum has pages and pages of Irma speculation http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119059&sid=5f4e94bf1512fb3479f5e0473b072299&start=9120 (http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119059&sid=5f4e94bf1512fb3479f5e0473b072299&start=9120)
Just go to the last few pages....page count is always increasing of course.
I never heard of "euro" before as far as hurricanes go. Euro is some group in Europe that has their super computers churning, trying to predict IRMAs path and intensity. There are other groups too with their own super computers doing the same. For us IRMA is destruction. For them IRMA is an informal competition.
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Latest euro model just came out (has been more accurate than the GFS model throughout the entire storm so far). The latest euro model has it much more west and right up all of our you know whats
(https://s26.postimg.cc/94d77m79x/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh1-72.gif) (https://postimg.cc/image/94d77m79x/)
This forum has pages and pages of Irma speculation http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119059&sid=5f4e94bf1512fb3479f5e0473b072299&start=9120 (http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119059&sid=5f4e94bf1512fb3479f5e0473b072299&start=9120)
Just go to the last few pages....page count is always increasing of course.
I never heard of "euro" before as far as hurricanes go. Euro is some group in Europe that has their super computers churning, trying to predict IRMAs path and intensity. There are other groups too with their own super computers doing the same. For us IRMA is destruction. For them IRMA is an informal competition.
Euro = ECMWF = European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Use whatever website, speculation forum or models you'd like Zands! The ECMWF "super computers" have been right on the money throughout the life of the storm so far.
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Euro is one of four weather models favored by the weather services. They are all run by many agencies on a daily basis or even more frequently. This (http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/ecmwf.html) is one page that shows current model runs for all four models.
Each model is run multiple times with slightly different starting conditions to reflect the uncertainties in the available information. The results of these different runs are called ensembles and produce the dense mass of lines on the simulation maps. Each model performs better under certain conditions and those conditions can change very quickly. That means you can't rely on any one model to predict what is going to happen, even though one may have performed well so far.
There is little comfort in any of these models. Much of Florida is less than 100 miles across. Current hurricane force winds in Irma are up to 50 miles from the eye and storm force winds 160 miles from the eye. The storm is three times bigger than the width of Florida.
My preferred weather side is wunderground.com with information on Irma and Jose here (https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane?index_region=at). Their latest update is here (https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-watch-se-florida-ahead-powerhouse-irma). They express significant concern for flying glass from glass curtain hi-rises in some areas and also concern for storm surges as high as 10 feet in some areas. This page (http://frances-a.cs.fiu.edu/gic/#lat=25.45780612191613&lon=-80.33409118652344) maps predicted storm surge for different strength hurricanes in southeast Florida.
It is hard to let go of things you have nurtured and cherished but as many have said here, you can replace or restore things but not lives. Please be safe and remember is is better to go back and repair damage than to not be there to return.
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Stay safe everyone in Southeast Florida. I hope your green babies weather the storm, but I'm more concerned that all our members stay safe. Tampa Bay is forecast to be on the "easier" side of the melee, but we're prepping for a big storm as well. See you all on the other side!
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Thanks for the explanation John. The closer it gets the more accurate and in agreement the models will be.
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Euro = ECMWF = European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Use whatever website, speculation forum or models you'd like Zands! The ECMWF "super computers" have been right on the money throughout the life of the storm so far.
Thanks///now I know what Euro means
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This (http://discover.pbcgov.org/publicsafety/dem/Publications/hurricane_guide.pdf) looks like a very informative guide to hurricane safety produced by Palm Beach. A bit late for some actions such as tree care but other timely information also.
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Remember that storm that was going to be off the Cape? Yeah, now its going to run up the spine of the state directly over Orlando when it gets this high.
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Lastest model looks pretty much to be the worst case scenario for S FL. Good luck everyone.
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I'm following all the evolution of the hurricane since I have family in Fl and sincere appreciation for the members of this forum. The predictions don't look pretty. I hope it will finally turn back to the ocean, but if not, everybody stay safe, best wishes for all of you from this side of the ocean.
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Well, the center of current track is right over my grove. I know avocado trees will probably get destroyed at anything over 140 mph and this Irma has even more. I don't know.......Like to get it done and over with. Too much information..... too many days before.
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:-[ :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[...this is going to suck.
Stay safe everyone! Not looking good for my fellow south east Florida memebers. Fingers crossed!
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:-[ :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[...this is going to suck.
Stay safe everyone! Not looking good for my fellow south east Florida memebers. Fingers crossed!
Not looking good for anybody in the keys or southeast or southwest Florida! Massive storm
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Well, the center of current track is right over my grove. I know avocado trees will probably get destroyed at anything over 140 mph and this Irma has even more. I don't know.......Like to get it done and over with. Too much information..... too many days before.
Has your grove taken a beating before? Does severe pruning prior to impact mitigate damage? I'm hopeful that our losses are minimal.
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What area of Naples, fruitfreak?
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Here a size comparison of Irma and Andrew: https://twitter.com/JoelNihlean/status/905845846687789058
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Stay safe guys and protect your families, that is the priority.
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On the bright side, it will only be a cat 2 when it gets here. Bad part is I am on the right side of it. yay. And my gym is closed tomorrow, grrrr. I am going to prune back some of my more spread out trees tomorrow just to be proactive, like my ice cream beans, mulberry, and my stupidly wide lychee tree(it grows like a weed, the others are very slow growers and are more compact.)
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Well, the center of current track is right over my grove. I know avocado trees will probably get destroyed at anything over 140 mph and this Irma has even more. I don't know.......Like to get it done and over with. Too much information..... too many days before.
Feeling very bad for you, Carlos. Andrew wiped out all vegetation in your area 25 years ago, and it looks like deja vu with Irma. Please stay safe.
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Here a size comparison of Irma and Andrew: https://twitter.com/JoelNihlean/status/905845846687789058
Good God! Andrew is a wimp compared to Irma. :-[
Easy for me to say but the hell with the trees and such! They can be replaced and will grow fast. i hope everyone in Florida has had time to make preparations and got out by now. What makes matters worse is you have only one direction you can go to escape - north. Good luck people.
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There was a raid on the bottled water at Home Depot today. Where residents in this area were woefully unprepared for Wilma's attack, folks here tend to over-prepare nowadays. Those post-Wilma memories of waiting literally 8 hours at the gas station for a few gallons of gas and shopping the only open wal-mart in the county under the light of flashlights and "cash only" purchases really molded a generation.
Be safe bro! Already resigned to the fact I will lose the nursery/grove, Just praying for my house
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Good luck guys. Please be safe.
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Truly Tropical and Har have a new video out showing pre-storm pruning:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6q1mUPn5gvw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6q1mUPn5gvw)
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I feel terrible for you guys, please stay safe. Best of luck for all.
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European forecast model unfortunately starting to be agreed with by most other forecast models out there.. NOT good for us. Good luck everyone.
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Latest ECMWF model has the storm continuing to shift further west. Worst news for FL Keys/Naples/Fort Myers general SW FL area.
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090812/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_3.png)
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Well, the center of current track is right over my grove. I know avocado trees will probably get destroyed at anything over 140 mph and this Irma has even more. I don't know.......Like to get it done and over with. Too much information..... too many days before.
Has your grove taken a beating before? Does severe pruning prior to impact mitigate damage? I'm hopeful that our losses are minimal.
Yes during Wilma and Katrina same year and trees were 2-3 years old 40% were flat on the ground. I think the winds never reached 80 mph in our area.
Severe pruning does work but is not something you can do in 5 days requires preparation and labor and equipment availability
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Pruning works well and how hard you prune depends on the wind speed you expect at your place. Even cat 3 or 4 when it crosses the coast means it could be worth chopping the jackfruit tops off and taking our leafy branches, Starapples do ok and don't seem to topple over if you take out high and leafy branches. Avos don't do very well unless they are hard trimmed and lychees also struggle as their foliage has plenty of wind resistance and big branches break.In march Cyclone Debbie crossed the coast in Queensland as Cat 4 and maximum wind gusts were around 160mph..Many big trees around Proserpins fell over or were smashed up and even trees in the bush were stripped of all oliage.Some leafy bush areas looked like poles sticking out of coleslaw afterwards. The trees are growing back surprising well already.
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European forecast model unfortunately starting to be agreed with by most other forecast models out there.. NOT good for us. Good luck everyone.
Better agreement between the different models is to be expected as the storm gets closer.
Also, as you note, the European forecast is changing too, so it isn't like the Euro model is predicting the correct path all the time. Most importantly, don't expect any one model to be the best predictor for every hurricane. Each performs differently and their accuracy ranking changes with the particular storm and may even change from day to day within a single storm.
Absolutely hope for the best - I'm with you there, but as your governor says, do all you can to prepare for the worst. I've only lived at risk of hurricanes for 10 years but it that has been long enough to recognize that the models can't be relied on to tell how close a storm will come or how strong the winds will be in any location.
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Yep all the models change almost every time. I originally pointed at the European forecast model tracking more and more west to say not so fast re: the eye staying offshore of the east coast.
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Irma was a direct hit on my place in the Turks & Caicos. There has been no communication with the island as of yet. Hoping and praying that the 16 people who rode the storm out there are ok. No idea how my trees fared but I will update when I know. My best wishes to all of you who are still in Irma's path.
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Salty, very sorry to hear your area took a direct hit...hoping for the best and prayers to those that stayed behind, hoping they are all okay...
Good Luck to all of us in its path...I'm in Highlands County and it's really looking very bad for us as well...25 years in Florida, made it through Wilma but this one is a lot scarier and stronger. Stress level is through the roof for all of us.
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Thanks😀 Above all else be safe!
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Salt, sorry to hear about the direct hit. I pray you have minimal damage. Many of us are still in Irma's path, so we are remaining optimistic.
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Yes! Stay positive, prepare and hunker down if you didn't bug out. I will update when I get any word. Praying for everyone on her path. Thanks 👍🏼
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Irma was a direct hit on my place in the Turks & Caicos. There has been no communication with the island as of yet. Hoping and praying that the 16 people who rode the storm out there are ok. No idea how my trees fared but I will update when I know. My best wishes to all of you who are still in Irma's path.
Glad to hear you are ok. Are you on island or some other location?
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I have done about all that can be done to get ready for the storm winds. We are about to get. The rain is what we are worried about now. 10 inches will flood my fields. We have moved almost everything up to high ground and laid it over. I about lost it when we thought we were going to get 150 mph winds. Now my friend on Pine Inland is facing this. Good luck
(https://s26.postimg.cc/bux7ubi0l/IMG_0100.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/bux7ubi0l/)
(https://s26.postimg.cc/cyhc6a2np/IMG_0102.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/cyhc6a2np/)
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Like to get it done and over with. Too much information..... too many days before.
Agree...
I tell my family IMO the information that is provided by News from Hurricaine Center, local EMS, Army Corps, etc. is for evacuation/ & preparation information.
IMO points::: 1. It appears to me that this time given is always the quickest possible for the storm to arrive point to point with no mention of likely slowing... (So almost always expect a much much longer storm experience than forecast initially)...2. The flood zone evacuation is always the highest possible tide with highest wind to prevent deaths although they know it will probably be much less.... 3. The wind speed is always the believed highest it may be at the future point.
The only 1 of the 3 which I do not like is the #1 TIME. I wish they would say the quickest track is this track A so be prepared; but slowing is possible and this same track A is now also shown in the next slide graphics with high probability of slower arrival times that we really believe will happen with slowing of movement and direction flucuations.
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Now my friend on Pine Inland is facing this. Good luck
I woke to find the forecast path over Pine Island is within 500 feet of my property in the black box. I've evacuated.
(https://s26.postimg.cc/f90mr2wz9/direct_hit.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/f90mr2wz9/)
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Back up to Cat 5 at latest NHC update.
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Most annonas have fallen over here.
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Cocnut cream is down too
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Skhan, sorry to hear of your losses.
(https://s26.postimg.cc/3wpmzh9wl/2017-09-10_Photo.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/3wpmzh9wl/)
(https://s26.postimg.cc/4md0pkztx/southeast.gif) (https://postimg.cc/image/4md0pkztx/)
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My friend high tailed to NE Georgia. His 700 tree orchard on Pine Island is a goner.
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Do you know specifically about the damage to Pine Island already or are you just assuming? Is it Steve?
Brad
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I spoke to my friend yesterday. He said he's letting nature taking care of his land now. He's chilling in Atlanta. I am assuming that with newly planted fruit trees on an opened field, the scenerio isn't pretty especially when there's a hurricane rolling by.
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man is it windy, my papayas and bananas are sideways
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Take care buddy! Hope everyone in the storms path is okay. Chris
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Lost power at 2:00am. The suck begins
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🗯
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Hope everyone will be safe. Trees broken down do hurt but can be re-planted.
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My longan trees were loaded for a nice fall crop but I lost 80% to 90% of the fruit. The trees survived mostly with some loss of limbs. My 2 to 3 year old jackfruit didn't fare well as you can see this is the red morning and Excalibur red.
House came out fine. All in all I was fortunate as many around me lost a large percentage of their trees.
(https://s26.postimg.cc/6638jvrdx/IMG_1129.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/6638jvrdx/)
(https://s26.postimg.cc/6wvypntr9/IMG_1130.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/6wvypntr9/)
(https://s26.postimg.cc/cz3lg5i79/IMG_1131.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/cz3lg5i79/)
(https://s26.postimg.cc/udntoffc5/IMG_1132.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/udntoffc5/)
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We had a couple tornadoes come thru and rip apart some huge centuries old trees. We had at least 15" of rain and the canals are full so parts of my farm is under water as it cannot drain out. My house and barn made it fine. Several trees have been pushed over. Electric is out but I have a whole house generator. Hopefully the water will drain off soon or there will be some die off . Scary storm that wouldn't stop. I hope everyone else is at least as lucky as I feel
(https://s26.postimg.cc/yb3f0h6v9/IMG_1924.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/yb3f0h6v9/)
Wow. Glad you are safe!! Hope the water drains quickly!
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Irma was a direct hit on my place in the Turks & Caicos. There has been no communication with the island as of yet. Hoping and praying that the 16 people who rode the storm out there are ok. No idea how my trees fared but I will update when I know. My best wishes to all of you who are still in Irma's path.
Glad to hear you are ok. Are you on island or some other location?
I am in New Jersey. I found out the people on island all survived. Communication still cut off so no specifics on damage yet. Good luck to all of you in Florida who have just weathered Irma!!
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News from home ( Hollywood Fla east of Downtown ) My big 45-50ft Valencia Pride is leaning over, roots and all, one branch on the house, but no damage. So this tree is a goner , family going to try and get someone to remove some branches to lighten the load on the side its leaning, to alleviate any possible pressure on the house. still no power in that area as of Monday night.
My other smaller trees are all ok, even the recent Cotton Candy. from what I am told. no flooding in our area.
I notice some of the regulars on forum, are not commenting so either no power, or evacuated, hope everyone is fine. and little damage.
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Came home from a shelter close to LaBelle Florida to find a huge mess. My road has power lines down
across the road in 3 places. The kid's trampoline was in the pool, not a scratch on the fence. Half of my back lanai
is laying about 100 feet to the side of my house and squashed a St Rita fig, I never liked that fig anyway. It always
seemed to drop it figs before ripe. It was laying up against a LSU purple fig which should make it after a good prune.
One side of my screened porch is gone also. I have a $20,000 hurricane deductible, I figure the damage will be $19,995.
So where do you start?
I can't imagine getting power for at least a week? I came home at 7:30 am and my neighbor had already cut the path in.
It was impassable before. I have a 30 foot oak down in the corner of my property and about 5-6 trees down on the side which
crushed my fence. What a sight! My 9 year old boy just started crying when he saw the mess. I wish I was allowed to cry.
Well I got the trampoline torn apart and put to the curb, and I got about 25 trees staked and pruned. I lost a St Rita Fig,
a Silas wood sapodilla that snapped off right at the graft and a seedling loquat that was about 15 feet high that had produced
a couple crops of average tasting fruit. I would rather put in a LSU Black for the St Rita and I had wasted tons of real estate on
that yearling loquat which I can now plant 6-10 annonas my newest favorite fruit. The silas wood I have another in a pot or I
could put my potted Sabara jabo next to the other one. All my sugar apples and atemoyas were lying on the ground or leaning
heavy. I staked them and pruned heavy and removed any immature fruit. I hope they survive? I got allot done but I really
wanted to evacuate. It should be easy driving out of the state? I also had tons of help from my wife and 12 year old son.
I have a name of a company to fix the lanai I can call hopefully before 10,000 people call and I hope the garbage company
will pick up yard waste on Wednesday I think I will have something this week for sure, My family is safe and I hope yours
is too!
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saw 90-100 mph gust, The winds lasted for over 12 hours, Passion fruit were being hurled all over the place, most bananas i had to cut in half, papayas and avocado are good, Inga took it like a champ, same with soursop, amla broke at its base but it can grow back from the roots other than that all good here. Can't imagine the damage down south.
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For me not too much damage. A sapodilla tree was semi up rooted that I have to put upright. But fallen tree branches to clean up after. After 5 minutes of on and off, the power went out on Sunday just before noon. It came back on Tuesday at 3AM. During the 2006 hurricane for Ft Lauderdale area the power was out 11 days.
Three construction cranes were blown over in Miami and one Foot Locker store was raided and emptied. Brickell Ave was under water.....its the main drag in Miami.
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Best wishes to everyone for a speedy recovery.
We evacuated to GA. My sister's 40 ft pecan tree is all busted up and half of it is laying on the fence and ground, as the storm followed us all the way north of Atlanta.
We really don't know how any of our fruit trees and other edibles are doing. 2 neighbors told me the house looks good, and that none of the big trees in the front yard went down. We just had all the big trees trimmed, thankfully. No word on the backyard yet. My neighbor across the street has a few trees down, so anything is possible.
Power is out still.
Lucky and grateful.
What is the word on the roads and gas? We had a very difficult time finding gas during our evacuation. Gasbuddy app helped a lot. Wondering about the trek back home. Getting a trailer hitch and cargo carrier put on the vehicle today, going to haul extra gas of our own just in case. Feeling like the Road Warrior.
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We sat it out like most of our neighbors. Power went out at 10pm and hasn't come back on. Two large pine trees fell and narrowly missed my house in a V with the house in the middle. I have a few trees that need to be staked back up from their lean but couldn't do it yesterday since there was a heavy wind all day, which at least made cleanup a little cooler, and most of the areas they are in are flooded. My Key lime was uprooted by the wind, I am going to try and put it back down and see if it lives. Got absolutely mauled by ants while working yesterday, they were on every frikkin branch it seems. My eastern grove is under several inches of water with all 30ish trees affected. Hopefully that will not last long. My lychees are also under water, one being knee deep, they will probably love it.
All in all, I need a bigger generator for my well, a better chainsaw for downed trees, and gotta figure something out on the stove since its a gas stove but somehow requires electricity to work. grrr. Hopefully we get power back today.
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So sorry to hear about all the damage but glad to hear people are OK. I hope we hear that everyone and their homes came through the storm OK and that gardens/groves are recoverable.
For what it's worth, Odile partially uprooted my 20' high coconut a few years back. I supported it with ropes and used a come-along to haul it upright again, then kept it supported for about a year. It is solid again now and just went through Lidia without a problem. Not sure if it is possible with a 50' mango tree TD, but maybe something to think about.
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Checking in from St. Croix.
Wow, we really dodged a bullet here. Only experienced tropical storm force winds. All my trees and plants made it. A couple 3 year old dwarf cocos blew over but I staked them back up and hopefully they will be alright. A huge Moringa branch fell on my seedlings but miraculously none got smashed!
However, our neighbors to the North: St. Thomas, St. John, British Virgin Islands did not fare well at all. St. Marten, Barbuda, St. Barts did even worse. Its almost complete devastation over there. Unlike the mainland where you can evacuate and supplies can be brought in post-storm very quickly, we don't have that luxury here. You can only prepare as best as possible and hope the storm spares you and your property.
We saw her sitting at 17.2 deg N and moving straight West. St. Croix is at 17.7 N. We started getting really nervous. When the storm was about 200 miles away, it started heading WNW. This put it at about 18.1 or 18.2 when it was due north of us which is pretty much right over our sister islands.
Was talking with my wife's dad on St. Thomas before the eyewall hit and he was very worried and saying he couldn't hold the sliding glass door closed much longer. Then we lost contact. It was about 24 hours later before we confirmed he was alive and ok. Somehow the little fiberglass home my wife grew up in on St. Thomas came away unscathed.
The aftermath has seen a lot of people come together to help each other out. But the situation is desperate. The islands need food, water, supplies, etc. President Trump is visiting in a few days and has pledged relief. Unfortunately the media hasn't given us much coverage even though we are US citizens. If anyone is interested in donating money, clothes, or anything else please let me know. Those impacted by Irma in the Caribbean really need all the help they can get.
I could go on and on about the stories of both during the storm and after. Some are what nightmares are made of. Some will make your heart swell with compassion for the good that is still present in humanity. Its a very strange time for us here in the US Virgin Islands. British Virgin Islands are even more devastated. My heart goes out to all of them.
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Irma was something else, our neighbor islands saw 185 mph sustained winds with gusts to 225 mph. :'(
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Irma was something else, our neighbor islands saw 185 mph sustained winds with gusts to 225 mph. :'(
I can't imagine that! Curious, do you ever get tired of hurricane threats? I did. After living in Corpus Christi and going thru a bunch over 44 years......the fear, preparation and then aggravation/cost of the cleanup and no electricity for weeks, being a shelter manager when called upon.....just got damn old.
Family and I took the eye of a devastating hurricane that didn't get much attention in 1970, Celia. The anenometer blew off at the Port A. airport at 165 mph and reports had gusts up to 223 mph. Designated Cat. 3? Bullshit. ::)
God's speed for a quick recovery to all affected by this monster. :-\
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dang 185 MPH!!!
If I was forced to live in areas where we get hurricanes like this, I would build it out of structural CMU/Concrete only with 10 feet raised foundation as well. even then windows could blow up under such pressure.
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I hope all a speedy as possible recovery from this hurricane. :(
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dang 185 MPH!!!
If I was forced to live in areas where we get hurricanes like this, I would build it out of structural CMU/Concrete only with 10 feet raised foundation as well. even then windows could blow up under such pressure.
I have always wondered why in the US many (the majority?) houses are built with wood or light materials even though you have many natural risks (hurricanes, tornadoes). In my country, even with the low revenues/habitant all the houses are built with concrete (and we don't have extreme climatic events like yours). Is it cost? or is there other advantages of light buildings?
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Dinero and efficiency.
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dang 185 MPH!!!
If I was forced to live in areas where we get hurricanes like this, I would build it out of structural CMU/Concrete only with 10 feet raised foundation as well. even then windows could blow up under such pressure.
I have always wondered why in the US many (the majority?) houses are built with wood or light materials even though you have many natural risks (hurricanes, tornadoes). In my country, even with the low revenues/habitant all the houses are built with concrete (and we don't have extreme climatic events like yours). Is it cost? or is there other advantages of light buildings?
Actually, all houses built post hurricane Andrew in the mid 90's up have strict structural requirements .
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dang 185 MPH!!!
If I was forced to live in areas where we get hurricanes like this, I would build it out of structural CMU/Concrete only with 10 feet raised foundation as well. even then windows could blow up under such pressure.
I have always wondered why in the US many (the majority?) houses are built with wood or light materials even though you have many natural risks (hurricanes, tornadoes). In my country, even with the low revenues/habitant all the houses are built with concrete (and we don't have extreme climatic events like yours). Is it cost? or is there other advantages of light buildings?
Many modern homes use cement blocks for outer walls, and wood for roof, there is some advantages to this, one is of course cost, but the other is insulation. most homes use central air-conditioning, we use gypsum board instead of mortar to cover the inside walls, we put insulation between the two. the steep roof, ( attic ) is also filled with insulation, this saves a lot on heating and cooling costs.
Also should state that in Earthquake prone areas, a wood roof is somewhat safer. I mention this because here in the DR. we use all cement everything, walls, and ceilings, roofs are just poured cement, no insulation, so if you put your hand on the ceiling on a sunny day you can feel the heat. in an Earthquake these flat slabs, can fall on you. but of course the benefit is, being strong against winds.
After Andrew, I was working down in Homestead, and noticed complete neighborhoods, mostly destroyed, but then right next to it you see another neighborhood, almost untouched. why? construction code, and techniques. its not so much whether the roof is wood or not, but how it is built. look at Key West , they got the brunt of the storm, and you can see many wooden homes intact, not all wooden homes are created equally.
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In FL, good luck getting home insurance if you don't have a concrete brick home. My bank wont even mortgage a wood frame. I think most if not all the homes in my neighborhood, some of whom date from the 60s are either brick or stone and most are covered in stucco. Tile roofing is by far the way to go. I think if I ever get rich I am building a castle with modern amenities. That should survive with no problems. And have a big courtyard for my fruit trees.
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Checking in from St. Croix.
Wow, we really dodged a bullet here. Only experienced tropical storm force winds. All my trees and plants made it. A couple 3 year old dwarf cocos blew over but I staked them back up and hopefully they will be alright. A huge Moringa branch fell on my seedlings but miraculously none got smashed!
However, our neighbors to the North: St. Thomas, St. John, British Virgin Islands did not fare well at all. St. Marten, Barbuda, St. Barts did even worse. Its almost complete devastation over there. Unlike the mainland where you can evacuate and supplies can be brought in post-storm very quickly, we don't have that luxury here. You can only prepare as best as possible and hope the storm spares you and your property.
We saw her sitting at 17.2 deg N and moving straight West. St. Croix is at 17.7 N. We started getting really nervous. When the storm was about 200 miles away, it started heading WNW. This put it at about 18.1 or 18.2 when it was due north of us which is pretty much right over our sister islands.
Was talking with my wife's dad on St. Thomas before the eyewall hit and he was very worried and saying he couldn't hold the sliding glass door closed much longer. Then we lost contact. It was about 24 hours later before we confirmed he was alive and ok. Somehow the little fiberglass home my wife grew up in on St. Thomas came away unscathed.
The aftermath has seen a lot of people come together to help each other out. But the situation is desperate. The islands need food, water, supplies, etc. President Trump is visiting in a few days and has pledged relief. Unfortunately the media hasn't given us much coverage even though we are US citizens. If anyone is interested in donating money, clothes, or anything else please let me know. Those impacted by Irma in the Caribbean really need all the help they can get.
I could go on and on about the stories of both during the storm and after. Some are what nightmares are made of. Some will make your heart swell with compassion for the good that is still present in humanity. Its a very strange time for us here in the US Virgin Islands. British Virgin Islands are even more devastated. My heart goes out to all of them.
Thank you for the detailed assessment. Who you are makes all the difference in media coverage. In Sierra Leone, where my wife is from, they just had a mudslide a few weeks ago that killed over 1,000 people...for example.
Can you suggest any efficient, legitimate ways to contribute - financially or otherwise? Too many big organizations take donations with just a trickle reaching those who need help.
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Lauderdale here - Somebody mentioned re-bar for stakes...it worked... lots of defoliation but a few small trees still upright... thanks for the tip.
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We sat it out like most of our neighbors. Power went out at 10pm and hasn't come back on. Two large pine trees fell and narrowly missed my house in a V with the house in the middle.
All in all, I need a bigger generator for my well, a better chainsaw for downed trees, and gotta figure something out on the stove since its a gas stove but somehow requires electricity to work. grrr. Hopefully we get power back today.
Count your blessing on those pine trees! There must be some work around for your stove. That electric starter is there so you don't have to burn a pilot light like in the good old days. I suppose your can turn the gas knob but gas will not flow unless the electronic ignition is working? For safety reasons? But still your stove is unusable without electricity which is ridiculous. There should be a simple way to bypass the electronics.
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We sat it out like most of our neighbors. Power went out at 10pm and hasn't come back on. Two large pine trees fell and narrowly missed my house in a V with the house in the middle.
All in all, I need a bigger generator for my well, a better chainsaw for downed trees, and gotta figure something out on the stove since its a gas stove but somehow requires electricity to work. grrr. Hopefully we get power back today.
Count your blessing on those pine trees! There must be some work around for your stove. That electric starter is there so you don't have to burn a pilot light like in the good old days. I suppose your can turn the gas knob but gas will not flow unless the electronic ignition is working? For safety reasons? But still your stove is unusable without electricity which is ridiculous. There should be a simple way to bypass the electronics.
Most gas stoves have piezo electric starter (sparker). Gas should still flow. So you can light it with a lighter.
PS Glad everybody's house so far in reports is still up!
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Lauderdale here - Somebody mentioned re-bar for stakes...it worked... lots of defoliation but a few small trees still upright... thanks for the tip.
Rebar is easy to get, easy to pound into the ground next to the trunk. It gives iron to the tree.
I prefer fiberglass stake. It lets the tree flex so the tree develop better trunk.
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I tried the lighter thing as that is what I expected it to do as well. It wont release gas without power apparently :( Oh well, we got power about 1430 so all is good. Thankfully we are off one of the main feeders for that damn school they built in the neighborhood and we had no lines down on our street after we moved two pine trees resting on the lines first thing Monday morning(neighbor is a lineman and he wanted to secure our street before he left to go to work). They stopped doing line work once they reached the school and went off to a higher priority leaving about half the neighborhood of 3000 homes still without power.
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Had some downed or leaning trees otherwise fared as well as could have hoped for.
Details later.
Anyone heard from Carlos and the guys and gals in Naples and Fort Myers area?
Dom?
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Just got power restored early this morning. Papayas and nanas took a beating, gusts up to 90mph. They listed pretty far and I had to prune off the damaged branches, upright them and tie them to the fence for now. Need a long term way to keep them straight.
(https://s26.postimg.cc/v5oc47acl/IMG_5536.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/v5oc47acl/)
(https://s26.postimg.cc/8v0h48d2d/IMG_5537.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/8v0h48d2d/)
(https://s26.postimg.cc/qnm1c3uat/IMG_5542.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/qnm1c3uat/)
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Here are some pics of the damages to the coconut cream.
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4378/36389908443_81946f4119.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/XrDMYx)
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4375/37032085042_46f8fab2ae.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/Yqp7GS)
I had to up-right most of my annonas, they're still pretty young so hopefully they'll recover.
I staked them up with metal fence posting hammered into my limestone soil.
It looks like my young Dream is drying up so that will be another casualty. I'll need to replace it with a atemoya locally, maybe PPC
Silver lining
The Red Jabo is finally flowering
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4361/37061796341_ecc127e643.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/Yt2oQD)
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Here are some pics of the damages to the coconut cream.
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4378/36389908443_81946f4119.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/XrDMYx)
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4375/37032085042_46f8fab2ae.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/Yqp7GS)
I had to up-right most of my annonas, they're still pretty young so hopefully they'll recover.
I staked them up with metal fence posting hammered into my limestone soil.
It looks like my young Dream is drying up so that will be another casualty. I'll need to replace it with a atemoya locally, maybe PPC
Silver lining
The Red Jabo is finally flowering
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4361/37061796341_ecc127e643.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/Yt2oQD)
Glad you fared well.
You didn't mention the soursop, assume it was ok too.
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Here are some pics of the damages to the coconut cream.
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4378/36389908443_81946f4119.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/XrDMYx)
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4375/37032085042_46f8fab2ae.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/Yqp7GS)
I had to up-right most of my annonas, they're still pretty young so hopefully they'll recover.
I staked them up with metal fence posting hammered into my limestone soil.
It looks like my young Dream is drying up so that will be another casualty. I'll need to replace it with a atemoya locally, maybe PPC
Silver lining
The Red Jabo is finally flowering
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4361/37061796341_ecc127e643.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/Yt2oQD)
Glad you fared well.
You didn't mention the soursop, assume it was ok too.
Thanks,
The sour sop toppled and definitely has some root damage like the other annonas.
I hoping since they are relatively small they have time to rebound
Some of the leaves are drying up on the sour sop, so I have to wait and see the extent of the die back
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My coconut cream did the exact thing, I also lost a lychee that snapped, had to reset a few mango and peach that were leaning, tropic beauty peach almost fell over. What I came away with from Irma, the trees that were trimmed fared better than those I let go to get bigger.
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Most all younger trees leaning or down here at my place in Bokeelia. Had to right them and hoping most pull through. All mature trees are fine, can't even tell they went thru a storm. 15 mature coconut palms took a beating but standing strong. Santols weren't / aren't happy... Lost 5 out of 6 papaya, some bananas, and most sugar canes. Garage saved the nursery. No electricity yet but have water. Overall dodged a bullet here!!
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coconut cream mango seem to have issues with graft unions 3 of 4 snapped off the graft no other mangos did this.
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Still no power here. One tree at the end of the block is being held up by the power line. My street is the only one in the neighborhood without power. Power company basically said it is only affecting 14 homes so fuck off. We are at the end of the list to get fixed.
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Still no power here. One tree at the end of the block is being held up by the power line. My street is the only one in the neighborhood without power. Power company basically said it is only affecting 14 homes so fuck off. We are at the end of the list to get fixed.
That's crazy. Hope they get their butts in gear ASAP.
-Anthony
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I have seen this before with coconut cream under much less wind stress. Maybe graft them to their own seedlings with cleft graft instead of the bud grafting that Zill does.
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Just got home !
Here's my mango trees after Irma !
(https://s26.postimg.cc/to0cgeqol/IMG_2588.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/to0cgeqol/)
We where lucky !
Ed
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dang 185 MPH!!!
If I was forced to live in areas where we get hurricanes like this, I would build it out of structural CMU/Concrete only with 10 feet raised foundation as well. even then windows could blow up under such pressure.
I have always wondered why in the US many (the majority?) houses are built with wood or light materials even though you have many natural risks (hurricanes, tornadoes). In my country, even with the low revenues/habitant all the houses are built with concrete (and we don't have extreme climatic events like yours). Is it cost? or is there other advantages of light buildings?
Many modern homes use cement blocks for outer walls, and wood for roof, there is some advantages to this, one is of course cost, but the other is insulation. most homes use central air-conditioning, we use gypsum board instead of mortar to cover the inside walls, we put insulation between the two. the steep roof, ( attic ) is also filled with insulation, this saves a lot on heating and cooling costs.
Also should state that in Earthquake prone areas, a wood roof is somewhat safer. I mention this because here in the DR. we use all cement everything, walls, and ceilings, roofs are just poured cement, no insulation, so if you put your hand on the ceiling on a sunny day you can feel the heat. in an Earthquake these flat slabs, can fall on you. but of course the benefit is, being strong against winds.
After Andrew, I was working down in Homestead, and noticed complete neighborhoods, mostly destroyed, but then right next to it you see another neighborhood, almost untouched. why? construction code, and techniques. its not so much whether the roof is wood or not, but how it is built. look at Key West , they got the brunt of the storm, and you can see many wooden homes intact, not all wooden homes are created equally.
Key West was on the good side (west) of the eye with minimal surge and lower winds than the keys on the bad side of the eye.
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Just wanted to report our farm got the worst of Irma and it has destroyed so much vegetation in Naples. 150mph wind direct hit from east eyewall. House made it through with some minor soffit and roof shingle repair. Total damage to 300 newly planted fruit trees remains to be seen. Rolling up the blinds and watching this storm through impact windows during the daytime was an experience.
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Wednesday night, and still no power in large swaths of Pinellas. I lost a couple of avocados - fruit, not trees. Some of the mango trees got a bit pruned, but overall not bad.
The big golden poinciana put up a good fight. Lost a lot of small branches, but the big ones held. Came down to a couple hours of yard raking and general cleanup. Windows held, as did the roof.
Overall, we were pretty lucky.
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For those who suffered severe damage; you have my condolences.
In Western Palm Beach County, I feel we missed a bullet with Irma striking the west coast, instead of the east coast. Windspeeds upto about 80 MPH where I was. No roof damage, no shingle damage. I have Miami-Dade rated shutters, which are pretty tough.
A few banana plants fell over. A longan and lime tree fell over. I feel fortunate and am thankful for the minimal damage for such a powerful storm. I was waiting until I had power, before uprighting the trees so that I could water the trees. Just got power back today.
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I am in ne cape Coral.
I purchase the lot next to me and planted it out over the last 1.5 years. Overall extremely lucky for 90+ winds +gusts .
1 absolute casualty in a snapped sugar apple. 1 probable casualty in a star fruit. Plenty of tree that needed straightening stomping and staking and one large mango that needs heavy staking to correct a lean. But all in all super lucky and grateful for 50 trees and such light correction needed
No power 3 days now is the worst part
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My condolences also....arrrggghhhhhh. :-\ Marley, sorry about the new orchard. That hurts. It they're still around (not in the next county) replant, stake, and I think you'll find they will be fine.
Keep the faith and good luck Florida!
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Just got home !
Here's my mango trees after Irma !
(https://s26.postimg.cc/to0cgeqol/IMG_2588.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/to0cgeqol/)
We where lucky !
Ed
That's great my friend! Congratulations! ;D
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Some one just told me that folks in a disaster area don't have to pay there mortgage for 3 Month.
Does any one has more info on this ?
Thanks Ed
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Some one just told me that folks in a disaster area don't have to pay there mortgage for 3 Month.
Does any one has more info on this ?
Thanks Ed
I heard this on the radio the other day too.
I think there might be some paper work involved and it depends on the type of mortgage.
Most importantly however is you still need to come up with 3 months worth of payments.
So its more like deferred not waived.
(I'm sure I'm missing details, just relating what i remember)
Unfortunately nothing is simple.
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Some one just told me that folks in a disaster area don't have to pay there mortgage for 3 Month.
Does any one has more info on this ?
Thanks Ed
Here is an article. http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/09/14/hurricane-irma-mortgage-assistance-florida/ (http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/09/14/hurricane-irma-mortgage-assistance-florida/)
You need to check with your lender, apply for the program, etc.
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Probably not worth it. Interest continues to accrue during the deferment period (ie, your loan principal owed grows over those 3 months).
Some one just told me that folks in a disaster area don't have to pay there mortgage for 3 Month.
Does any one has more info on this ?
Thanks Ed
Here is an article. http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/09/14/hurricane-irma-mortgage-assistance-florida/ (http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/09/14/hurricane-irma-mortgage-assistance-florida/)
You need to check with your lender, apply for the program, etc.
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I'm better off just keep paying the monthly payment instead of coming up with 3 month one lump sum !
3 month buffer would be great thou !
Ed
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It's not a lump sum payment. It just extends your loan out a bit. So, if you pay, say $500 a month in interest, it would essentially add $1500 to your principal owed... but growing principal sucks :-).
I'm better off just keep paying the monthly payment instead of coming up with 3 month one lump sum !
3 month buffer would be great thou !
Ed
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Oh got it !
Thanks Jeff..
Ed
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Biew Kiew longan trees did very poorly in the hurricane while Kohala trees held up very well. One grower in homestead had 20 acres of BK that are a total loss while kohala have only minor limb loss. In my grove the longan tree with the most damage is a BK. Lychee trees also did not fare well.
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I saw the guys who take care of my trees today and they told me about a field in Homestead at least 10 miles from the ocean that was loaded with all kinds of fish from the ocean including large grouper that were sucked up by the hurricane and tossed inland.
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Sorry to hear that !
Does anyone know he w Carlos Avocado grove did ?
Ed
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My place on Pine Island in Lee County did OK. I had planted almost one acre this summer and the trees are wind burned but will recover. I had staked them at planting between 2 t-posts and tied with straps. Six Valencia Pride trees on the north border of the mango grove were blown over but protected the rest from strong gusts out of the north. I skeletonized them and pulled them back up.
We were spared the brunt of the storm by being on the west side of the track and landfall south of us. If the forecast track had held we would be wiped out.
Before:
(https://s26.postimg.cc/swzqop8et/DSC01138_1.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/swzqop8et/)
After:
(https://s26.postimg.cc/v2u1j7bv9/DSC01140_2.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/v2u1j7bv9/)
I was in Alabama but was watching live news feed from our local radar, and since the vast amount of damaged trees across the island were laid down north to south this screen capture as the eye wall passed may have been what did it:
(https://s26.postimg.cc/8579tphp1/storm_chunk.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/image/8579tphp1/)
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I also want to hear from Carlos and Dom.
Hope they did ok.
Homestead took a hit and I hear some parts of Lee County around Orange river got very wet.
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I saw the guys who take care of my trees today and they told me about a field in Homestead at least 10 miles from the ocean that was loaded with all kinds of fish from the ocean including large grouper that were sucked up by the hurricane and tossed inland.
I think they were screwing with you.
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I saw the guys who take care of my trees today and they told me about a field in Homestead at least 10 miles from the ocean that was loaded with all kinds of fish from the ocean including large grouper that were sucked up by the hurricane and tossed inland.
I think they were screwing with you.
You mean like a fish story, or perhaps square grouper? :)
But seriously, this should be possible. South Florida is criss-crossed with canals, what is to prevent fish to be washed upstearm in the surge and stranded as water recedes?
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Orkine, I messaged Dom. He is fine but has not had power since Sunday.
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Orkine, I messaged Dom. He is fine but has not had power since Sunday.
Thanks.
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Here comes Hurricane "Maria" , as of this writing, it is projected to be on, or near us in the DR, and go right over PR, supposedly will be a Cat2 when it gets here around Thursday. thing is, where will it go after that? I know you guys got nailed pretty bad, last thing you need is another.
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Here comes Hurricane "Maria" , as of this writing, it is projected to be on, or near us in the DR, and go right over PR, supposedly will be a Cat2 when it gets here around Thursday. thing is, where will it go after that? I know you guys got nailed pretty bad, last thing you need is another.
It'll be at 110 mph+ winds by the time it hits puerto rico so it doesn't look good, but it's still about a week to early to tell where it'll go
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That's crazy I just removed my storm shutters !
Good luck everyone.
Ed
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Wishing everyone a full and speedy recovery from this crazy storm.
We did alright here. The house is fine. Car is a little scratched and bumped up. Don't think any of our trees will be a loss. Most of them are damaged, several were laying sideways, but they are propped and strapped back up and looking ok. It was amazing how the small and low lying stuff really was not effected. Several tiny 4 inch pots with seeds were not moved by the storm. Seems like anything over 2 foot or more took a beating.
Have had power and ac since before our return, but no internet until today.
Being that I am self-empoyed, the major impact has been on our income. Glad to get back to work next week.
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Alhamdulillah, you guys are recovering from the storm. Luckily. I didn't buy a house down in Isla Pinella. Even I liked the spaceous area down there. My wife hates the heat and humidity. And mom wants to be near the grand kids. So we bought AZ and CA, Scottsdale and Riverside. That's where they are now. Family support if stuff happens.
Since I am half way around the world, I can't be home if emergency arises. My wife is Asian with kids. All hell would break loose or worse over there if I am not at home to assist them.
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I saw the guys who take care of my trees today and they told me about a field in Homestead at least 10 miles from the ocean that was loaded with all kinds of fish from the ocean including large grouper that were sucked up by the hurricane and tossed inland.
I think they were screwing with you.
You mean like a fish story, or perhaps square grouper? :)
But seriously, this should be possible. South Florida is criss-crossed with canals, what is to prevent fish to be washed upstearm in the surge and stranded as water recedes?
yeah, i saw a picture of a manatee that was washed on shore, so i am sure the same could happen to grouper.
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A manatee washing ashore is somewhat different than a groupernado carrying fish 11 miles inshore.
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If the manatee pic is the one I saw, it was in Tampa Bay when the storm emptied the bay so fast it left stuff like manatees high and dry.
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I also want to hear from Carlos and Dom.
Hope they did ok.
Homestead took a hit and I hear some parts of Lee County around Orange river got very wet.
Got this email reply from Carlos on the 17th: "I have no power at home but minimal damage mostly trees and fence
Grove worst about 30% of trees down. A crew started yesterday there to see what can be saved.
I,m getting to old for this
Thanks bro:
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bit late just a quick note but well irma tore up the island of st maarten
both sides, many roofs and structures. even buildings with concrete roofs that stood, blow out windows and doors.
damaged tons of fruit trees the ones i could find in pots well lets see if they will survived.
Amazingly for all the damage destruction very little loss of life. Dominica got hit really hard by maria
glad that missed us!!!! not glad it hit everyone else though
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bit late just a quick note but well irma tore up the island of st maarten
both sides, many roofs and structures. even buildings with concrete roofs that stood, blow out windows and doors.
damaged tons of fruit trees the ones i could find in pots well lets see if they will survived.
Amazingly for all the damage destruction very little loss of life. Dominica got hit really hard by maria
glad that missed us!!!! not glad it hit everyone else though
Glad to hear from you on the ground.