Polar vortex heading to FL next week?

[bovine421]

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I had frost at 36 degrees.  Ice on roof of house and car, crunchy white sparkly icy grass (yes, repeating myself but proving you can have frost when temps are above32 degrees).

At 6:45 am on the Southeast side of my house my plastic lawn furniture had heavy dew but no ice crystals. On the northwest side of my house my truck hood had frost. Not more than a couple miles from my house none of the equipment or Vehicles had any frost on them at 7:00am. But more importantly do the trees have time to recover and reflower?

[swincher]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news (and the are all the usual caveats about unreliable 10 day forecast models), but the trend for Valentine's Day has not been looking good for FL and gulf states.

Temps in SFla that tineframe nowhere near what they were the last few days.  The last three nights I was 43, 40 and 36.  Forecast lows for Valentine's weekend here are in the mid to upper 50s.

The forecast is based on many factors, this is the GFS weather model, one of the factors considered but not the only one. What that means is they think the model is predicting too much cold, or they are averaging with earlier runs of the model that showed the cold air focused more to the west.

Edit: A new run is out and shifted back west. The point I'm making is the models are insistent that anther polar vortex style air mass will be pushing south around Valentine's Day, which could be bad for FL or Texas or anywhere in between, you'll have to wait a few more days for the model to settle on a likely outcome. New one:

[bovine421]

We had a large amount of rain for a long duration before the cold front moved in with standing water in some locations. Could that be the reason I head heavy do was very little Frost. I noticed were I watered under the trees had heavy dew but around the perimeter there was a very light frost that formed on the ground. And when I got to work it was around  34/ 35 degrees. The John Deere loader did not have any frost on the hood windshield none of the pickups had frost on the windows. So I'm assuming this has to do with the dew point. Areas with lower moisture may have had more Frost . Do not know I am not a meteorologist.

[fliptop]

While cold air does settle, evaporative cooling must also be taken into consideration. This is where the dew point (the point where moisture in the air will start to condense into water droplets) becomes important. Any surface that the dew settles on will experience evaporative cooling and may experience frost. Frequently, frost may be observed on roofs and vehicles that are way above ground level even when the ground is free of frost. For example, if the temperature is 34 but the dew point is 35 frost can occur. Conversely, if the temperature is 34 but the dew point is 33 frost should not occur because the water in the air will not condense and cause evaporative cooling to chill an area to 32 where ice can form.

Thanks, Galatians522, for the clear explanation!

This will be super encouraging information if you could tell me that any potential frost on papayas and mango leaves and flowers and jackfruit seedlings when it's 36° is not as harmful as if it were 32°!

[bsbullie]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news (and the are all the usual caveats about unreliable 10 day forecast models), but the trend for Valentine's Day has not been looking good for FL and gulf states.

Temps in SFla that tineframe nowhere near what they were the last few days.  The last three nights I was 43, 40 and 36.  Forecast lows for Valentine's weekend here are in the mid to upper 50s.

The forecast is based on many factors, this is the GFS weather model, one of the factors considered but not the only one. What that means is they think the model is predicting too much cold, or they are averaging with earlier runs of the model that showed the cold air focused more to the west.

Edit: A new run is out and shifted back west. The point I'm making is the models are insistent that anther polar vortex style air mass will be pushing south around Valentine's Day, which could be bad for FL or Texas or anywhere in between, you'll have to wait a few more days for the model to settle on a likely outcome. New one:

I know and read these maps, probably better than you do.based on your comments.

Stop over-hyping this.  For the midwest and more northern areas of the US, anything is possible.  There is absolutely no evidence of any polar extreme temps affecting central or south Florida like we just went through.

Dont be the boy who cried wolf. 

[bovine421]

While cold air does settle, evaporative cooling must also be taken into consideration. This is where the dew point (the point where moisture in the air will start to condense into water droplets) becomes important. Any surface that the dew settles on will experience evaporative cooling and may experience frost. Frequently, frost may be observed on roofs and vehicles that are way above ground level even when the ground is free of frost. For example, if the temperature is 34 but the dew point is 35 frost can occur. Conversely, if the temperature is 34 but the dew point is 33 frost should not occur because the water in the air will not condense and cause evaporative cooling to chill an area to 32 where ice can form.

Thanks, Galatians522, for the clear explanation!

This will be super encouraging information if you could tell me that any potential frost on papayas and mango leaves and flowers and jackfruit seedlings when it's 36° is not as harmful as if it were 32°!

Thanks for bringing this back to the top of the queue flip-top I must have been taking a nap when this posted. I find this whole experience to be extremely exhausting! I will stop by 7-Eleven and buy more Pepto-Bismol

[bovine421]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news (and the are all the usual caveats about unreliable 10 day forecast models), but the trend for Valentine's Day has not been looking good for FL and gulf states.

Temps in SFla that tineframe nowhere near what they were the last few days.  The last three nights I was 43, 40 and 36.  Forecast lows for Valentine's weekend here are in the mid to upper 50s.

The forecast is based on many factors, this is the GFS weather model, one of the factors considered but not the only one. What that means is they think the model is predicting too much cold, or they are averaging with earlier runs of the model that showed the cold air focused more to the west.

Edit: A new run is out and shifted back west. The point I'm making is the models are insistent that anther polar vortex style air mass will be pushing south around Valentine's Day, which could be bad for FL or Texas or anywhere in between, you'll have to wait a few more days for the model to settle on a likely outcome. New one:

I know and read these maps, probably better than you do.based on your comments.

Stop over-hyping this.  For the midwest and more northern areas of the US, anything is possible.  There is absolutely no evidence of any polar extreme temps affecting central or south Florida like we just went through.

Dont be the boy who cried wolf.

At my work this is known as the Greta effect. The more you talk about the weather the worst it seems to get. Does anyone know if Al Gore is flying in his G7 today
It's Friday and I plan to doing some gardening tomorrow

[johnb51]

Let me remind you, dear friend, that weather and climate are two different things, and climate scientists with Ph.D's are a lot smarter than you and me.  (Now this will stir some controversy.)  But if you think Al Gore is an idiot, I would probably agree.  Anyhoo, I sure as hell am enjoying this winter!

[Tropheus76]

Ug I am glad it looks like it is heading elsewhere. I took a fair bit of damage this time when the temp dropped to 27 in my area. Even my covered trees without lights had a lot of damage and one of my lit trees, didn't actually light up thanks to a loose connection in the power cord. My flowering decorative trees took it the hardest though. Hoping my Royal Poinciana, African Sausage, and Jacaranda trees come back from it. At 20+ ft it is too big to cover.

[bovine421]

Let me remind you, dear friend, that weather and climate are two different things, and climate scientists with Ph.D's are a lot smarter than you and me.  (Now this will stir some controversy.)  But if you think Al Gore is an idiot, I would probably agree.  Anyhoo, I sure as hell am enjoying this winter!

I'm not going to say one way or the other but it seems to pay him really well
And if this continues you might want to buy a  fur hat

[swincher]

I know and read these maps, probably better than you do.based on your comments.

Stop over-hyping this.  For the midwest and more northern areas of the US, anything is possible.  There is absolutely no evidence of any polar extreme temps affecting central or south Florida like we just went through.

Dont be the boy who cried wolf.

Pretty sure from your other comments on this website that your opinion of your own knowledge, abilities, and understanding of everything is pretty out of touch with the reality. It's almost like you make it your personal mission to drive people out of this community with toxicity.

The last 8+ runs of the GFS have shown a strong signal for an arctic air mass pushing very far south around Feb 13-15. This isn't an outlier single run, and there isn't a weakening trend over recent runs. There's a good chance it doesn't reach south FL, but if not then it will probably affect south Texas instead. If the models back off in the next few days? Then great, it was a false alarm, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored in the meantime.

Until the pattern in the Arctic goes back it its usual location of circulation (hopefully within a few weeks?) there will be a continuing risk of cold air masses being driven south of their usual boundaries.

And as to the climate change discussion going on, yes, the reason that cold weather is pushing south is the warming of the arctic. One of the counterintuitive side effects of a warming arctic is weakening of the arctic circulation pattern, destabilizing it, and causing extreme cold events where the displaced arctic air mass ends up. But yes Al Gore is also an idiot.

[bovine421]

Ug I am glad it looks like it is heading elsewhere. I took a fair bit of damage this time when the temp dropped to 27 in my area. Even my covered trees without lights had a lot of damage and one of my lit trees, didn't actually light up thanks to a loose connection in the power cord. My flowering decorative trees took it the hardest though. Hoping my Royal Poinciana, African Sausage, and Jacaranda trees come back from it. At 20+ ft it is too big to cover.

Did your covered trees with lights fare measurable better? Hopefully so
And which ones did you prioritize to have lights?
I'm going to take a wild guess and say peach cobbler mango
If your mango crop is completely decimated I'm making three mango runs to West Palm Beach in May June and July. If you make a prepaid paid order at TAF I will be glad to pick it up and meet you in Narcoossee. As long as it's not more than a pickup up load. Lol

[Tropheus76]

My Mangoes definitely had priority. Sweet tart, lemon zest and cotton candy. The CC was the one where the lights didnt come on but only the top leaves of it looked burnt this morning. I also put a Perfume tree that was doing very well under lights and blankets and it doesnt show any damage. Alot of the flower pannicles on the LZ are damaged even if the leaves are good.

One thing I noticed, why are we not pushing olives in FL? I havent watered or fertilized in months, no protection and they seem perfectly happy with 27 degrees.

[bovine421]

My Mangoes definitely had priority. Sweet tart, lemon zest and cotton candy. The CC was the one where the lights didnt come on but only the top leaves of it looked burnt this morning. I also put a Perfume tree that was doing very well under lights and blankets and it doesnt show any damage. Alot of the flower pannicles on the LZ are damaged even if the leaves are good.

One thing I noticed, why are we not pushing olives in FL? I havent watered or fertilized in months, no protection and they seem perfectly happy with 27 degrees.

That's interesting that you brought that up. As of late my wife is been putting olives on my sandwiches. That is a very pleasant change.
Question what do you think about using a shop fan on a windless night with a frost advisory? I used a house fan early Thursday morning out of pure desperation  cuz I was out of supplies.I have a Pickering Dwarf Hawaiian and Julie that are in a row spaced for intensive farming. Would there be any benefit to doing  that. It's becoming logistically challenging to cover everything.

[EddieF]

I say cold's done till next yr for southern St. Lucie on down.
I just put the ac on for dinner, gotta say i always enjoy splashing water on my head more then coming in house cold any day.

[bovine421]

I say cold's done till next yr for southern St. Lucie on down.
I just put the ac on for dinner, gotta say i always enjoy splashing water on my head more then coming in house cold any day.

I hear you If I build a fire my wife will not come out to sit by it if it's below 70 degrees

[bsbullie]

I know and read these maps, probably better than you do.based on your comments.

Stop over-hyping this.  For the midwest and more northern areas of the US, anything is possible.  There is absolutely no evidence of any polar extreme temps affecting central or south Florida like we just went through.

Dont be the boy who cried wolf.

Pretty sure from your other comments on this website that your opinion of your own knowledge, abilities, and understanding of everything is pretty out of touch with the reality. It's almost like you make it your personal mission to drive people out of this community with toxicity.

The last 8+ runs of the GFS have shown a strong signal for an arctic air mass pushing very far south around Feb 13-15. This isn't an outlier single run, and there isn't a weakening trend over recent runs. There's a good chance it doesn't reach south FL, but if not then it will probably affect south Texas instead. If the models back off in the next few days? Then great, it was a false alarm, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored in the meantime.

Until the pattern in the Arctic goes back it its usual location of circulation (hopefully within a few weeks?) there will be a continuing risk of cold air masses being driven south of their usual boundaries.

And as to the climate change discussion going on, yes, the reason that cold weather is pushing south is the warming of the arctic. One of the counterintuitive side effects of a warming arctic is weakening of the arctic circulation pattern, destabilizing it, and causing extreme cold events where the displaced arctic air mass ends up. But yes Al Gore is also an idiot.

You dont know me so dont pretend you do.  By your comments, you prove your knowledge (or lack thereof).   Look at the freaking forecasts.  Oh, and please show me a forecast, with numbers, where a polar vortex is pushing very far south. 

Now go back and pull up some more maps you dont know how to read.....

[bsbullie]

Here is the Wellington forecast...I guess you dont mean this very far south? 

[bsbullie]

Maybe you mean like Orlando...hmmm, lowest temp is 49.  Not very polar like...oh, wait,  is this not what you meant by very far south...

[Jaboticaba45]

My Mangoes definitely had priority. Sweet tart, lemon zest and cotton candy. The CC was the one where the lights didnt come on but only the top leaves of it looked burnt this morning. I also put a Perfume tree that was doing very well under lights and blankets and it doesnt show any damage. Alot of the flower pannicles on the LZ are damaged even if the leaves are good.

One thing I noticed, why are we not pushing olives in FL? I havent watered or fertilized in months, no protection and they seem perfectly happy with 27 degrees.

Olive does perfectly happy in the teens here no protection. I heard that it is hard to fruit them in south FL due to lack of chill hours.

[johnb51]

My Mangoes definitely had priority. Sweet tart, lemon zest and cotton candy. The CC was the one where the lights didnt come on but only the top leaves of it looked burnt this morning. I also put a Perfume tree that was doing very well under lights and blankets and it doesnt show any damage. Alot of the flower pannicles on the LZ are damaged even if the leaves are good.

One thing I noticed, why are we not pushing olives in FL? I havent watered or fertilized in months, no protection and they seem perfectly happy with 27 degrees.

' e
Olive does perfectly happy in the teens here no protection. I heard that it is hard to fruit them in south FL due to lack of chill hours.

Olive trees can't be grown in South Florida (except for the notorious native "Black Olive" shade tree--Bucida buceras), but yeah I've heard they can be grown in Central Florida.

[swincher]

Now go back and pull up some more maps you dont know how to read.....

The forecasters are all struggling with the timing and location of the next arctic air mass, since the forecast models are all over the place on whether it's more likely to go west (and cause tropical fruit growers in south Texas headaches) or more east (and create a repeat of the recent cold in FL). The forecast discussion for "long term" only goes out 7 days so we'll have to wait until the Sunday text products to hear them explain next weekend's forecast. Here's just a taste of what is causing the official forecasts to diverge so much from any one model:

Now, the real story of the long term, the potential for winter
weather Thursday into Friday.  First off, there are significant
differences between latest model runs in regards to surface temps,
with the GFS having high temps in the low 30s with the Euro showing
high temps in the 60s. A near 30 degree difference. To continue to
highlight the inconsistencies, with yesterday`s run the GFS was warm
and the Euro was cold. So these latest model runs have flip- flopped
around each other in regards to Temps.

(from the Atlanta NWS forecast discussion this evening)

Not all NWS forecasters have dedicated as much detail to the end of the 7-day discussion. For example, in Miami they just say a cold front is coming without anything more about uncertainty about what the cold front brings behind it:

Continued warm conditions expected through the end of the week as
southeasterly surface flow will continue. Globals do signal
another cold frontal boundary moving into the Florida as the
period ends.

[Galatians522]

While cold air does settle, evaporative cooling must also be taken into consideration. This is where the dew point (the point where moisture in the air will start to condense into water droplets) becomes important. Any surface that the dew settles on will experience evaporative cooling and may experience frost. Frequently, frost may be observed on roofs and vehicles that are way above ground level even when the ground is free of frost. For example, if the temperature is 34 but the dew point is 35 frost can occur. Conversely, if the temperature is 34 but the dew point is 33 frost should not occur because the water in the air will not condense and cause evaporative cooling to chill an area to 32 where ice can form.

Thanks, Galatians522, for the clear explanation!

This will be super encouraging information if you could tell me that any potential frost on papayas and mango leaves and flowers and jackfruit seedlings when it's 36° is not as harmful as if it were 32°!

The answer to that is both yes and no. If your air temp is 36, but no frost forms, there should be little to no damage. If frost forms at that same air temperature, it will cause some damage. However, the damage will not typically be as great as when the air temperature drops to a lower degree because the duration will be much shorter. Lets hope in your situation that it didn't last long enough to do major damage. Only time will tell.

[zands]

What a joke. We are not getting any polar vortex in Fl. The last week had our last cold temps to stimulate our mango bloom. My opinion.

[bsbullie]

Now go back and pull up some more maps you dont know how to read.....

The forecasters are all struggling with the timing and location of the next arctic air mass, since the forecast models are all over the place on whether it's more likely to go west (and cause tropical fruit growers in south Texas headaches) or more east (and create a repeat of the recent cold in FL). The forecast discussion for "long term" only goes out 7 days so we'll have to wait until the Sunday text products to hear them explain next weekend's forecast. Here's just a taste of what is causing the official forecasts to diverge so much from any one model:

Now, the real story of the long term, the potential for winter
weather Thursday into Friday.  First off, there are significant
differences between latest model runs in regards to surface temps,
with the GFS having high temps in the low 30s with the Euro showing
high temps in the 60s. A near 30 degree difference. To continue to
highlight the inconsistencies, with yesterday`s run the GFS was warm
and the Euro was cold. So these latest model runs have flip- flopped
around each other in regards to Temps.

(from the Atlanta NWS forecast discussion this evening)

Not all NWS forecasters have dedicated as much detail to the end of the 7-day discussion. For example, in Miami they just say a cold front is coming without anything more about uncertainty about what the cold front brings behind it:

Continued warm conditions expected through the end of the week as
southeasterly surface flow will continue. Globals do signal
another cold frontal boundary moving into the Florida as the
period ends.

Models are NOT forecasts.  Models can show trends and there are no trends showing a polar vortex diving "very far south" (which to be honest, dont even know what you mean by this).  Humans use models to make forecasts.

Stick to what YOU know, which seems to be very little, instead of regurgitating crap that you are randomly pulling off the web.