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Author Topic: Category 4 Hurricane Irma  (Read 5183 times)

Future

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Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« on: September 04, 2017, 05:46:11 PM »
This looks...serious.  Any members in the currently projected path?  Sending out positive vibes to all...

http://www.weather.bm/maps/TropicalStormInfo.asp?WTNTnum=WTNT21&20179422450

nullzero

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2017, 06:51:23 PM »
Yes it looks serious, I am hoping it turns out to sea :(. I am hearing Category 5 potential not good at all!
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Tropheus76

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2017, 07:41:12 PM »
I think quite a few of us are on its projected path since pretty much all of FL is the projected path. I figure tomorrow or Wed we might have a better projected path. The majority of paths that I have seen as of now have it running up the the east coast and popping out in the Atlantic near Cocoa. So pretty much all of south and central FL will be affected at least somewhat.

jorge_cima

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2017, 08:07:05 PM »
Am watching the models right now and I am praying that the UKMET and HWRF are the most accurate ones.  Those two would place the storm south of Miami and perhaps heading into the golf.  Unfortunately, as these things go, its either us or somebody else. I just can not help to wish for it to be "not us." 

edzone9

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2017, 08:59:57 PM »
If it continues the same path I will pack up and leave for NYC by Wednesday with the Family ! ..

Good Luck to everyone!

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sytanta

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2017, 09:08:23 PM »
Wish you all safe!

Sy Tan

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2017, 09:47:30 PM »
There was a raid on the bottled water at Home Depot today. Where residents in this area were woefully unprepared for Wilma's attack, folks here tend to over-prepare nowadays. Those post-Wilma memories of waiting literally 8 hours at the gas station for a few gallons of gas and shopping the only open wal-mart in the county under the light of flashlights and "cash only" purchases really molded a generation.
Jeff  :-)

Orly

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2017, 11:10:08 PM »
The projected path is literally as much of a worst case scenario as it can get for S. FL.  I wont mind it nearly as much if it stays Cat 2 or less.  I'm pretty well prepared supply wise.  Cat 4 or 5 and it's gonna be a catastrophic nightmare.  If the SE FL coast gets wacked by a 5 it's game over.  Can't prep enough for a storm of that strength.  I took a direct hit by Andrew which was much smaller sized and that really sucked.    Also took direct hits by Katrina and Wilma but those paled in comparison.  Hasn't been a Cat 5 landfall on US in over 20 yrs so we may be due.  I don't think it'll reach Cat 5 but 4 would be close enough.

My new flourishing banana plants and papaya trees may get wiped out before I can get a first harvest.  :(
« Last Edit: September 04, 2017, 11:15:27 PM by Orly »

Tropicdude

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2017, 01:23:12 AM »
I think by Thursday you guys will have a much better idea where this thing is going to go,   at the moment its moving west at a snails pace of 13 mph.   it is expected to speed its movement up once it is north of Puerto Rico,   and it is that movement,  how fast it goes and when its starts that will determine whee it will be by the weekend.

also the cone still gives it a chance to go over PR and DR,  if it hits these Islands the mountains will greatly reduce its power.  and probably steer it off its present course a bit.

Mother is in Hollywood ( east of us 1 ) and have told my sister that if it looks like it will hit there,  that they should evacuate,  more inland.  I have seen old pictures of Hollywood under a few feet of water.  just would not be safe for her. 

anyway,  every day that passes we get a more accurate picture of where Irma will go.   

Already the projection has changed from the 5pm to the 11pm update,   its now further west ,  if it keeps going,  it might miss Florida entirely, and go into the Gulf.
http://www.ventusky.com/?p=25.2;-75.8;5&l=gust&t=20170910/15
« Last Edit: September 05, 2017, 01:30:57 AM by Tropicdude »
William
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Mark in Texas

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #9 on: September 05, 2017, 08:13:40 AM »
This the best forum for tracking Irma, comprised of amateur and pro weather geeks.  Posts are frequent with lots of info.

http://hardcoreweather.com/thread-26464-page-10.html

Here's the U.S. Surface Analysis.  48 hrs. steering currents (lows/highs) show it deflecting off to the right. 

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Surface/Current.aspx

I hope you guys are OK and this monster doesn't hit Fl. OR go into the gulf.   :-\

Good luck,
Mark
« Last Edit: September 05, 2017, 09:03:36 AM by Mark in Texas »

johnb51

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #10 on: September 05, 2017, 08:19:14 AM »
It's Cat 5 now and aiming for Florida by the end of the week.
John

Orly

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #11 on: September 05, 2017, 09:06:19 AM »
It's Cat 5 now and aiming for Florida by the end of the week.

A direct hit by a Cat 5 would leave no vegetation extending beyond 10-15 ft high aside from maybe Palms and few others.  I witnessed this first-hand with Andrew.  It was as if a giant machete just swept the entire southern half of the county.

nullzero

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2017, 09:16:35 AM »
180mph winds and the hurricane is going annular. Which means the eye wall is closed off completely and protection against dry air and degrading conditions. Most models have this going between the west and east coast of Florida.

This is horrible worst case scenario it will make Harvey flooding look like a better option.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2017, 09:18:53 AM by nullzero »
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Orly

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #13 on: September 05, 2017, 10:10:54 AM »
180mph winds and the hurricane is going annular. Which means the eye wall is closed off completely and protection against dry air and degrading conditions. Most models have this going between the west and east coast of Florida.

This is horrible worst case scenario it will make Harvey flooding look like a better option.

Yeah, I think flooding would be the better option if I had flood insurance.  Those winds will wreck many structures.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2017, 10:13:43 AM by Orly »

palmcity

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #14 on: September 05, 2017, 10:26:44 AM »
There was a raid on the bottled water at Home Depot today. Where residents in this area were woefully unprepared for Wilma's attack, folks here tend to over-prepare nowadays. Those post-Wilma memories of waiting literally 8 hours at the gas station for a few gallons of gas and shopping the only open wal-mart in the county under the light of flashlights and "cash only" purchases really molded a generation.

Yes agree that food and water after the storm should be little problem in South Florida as stores now have generator systems etc. to handle off grid electric needs. I believe most if not all Publix stores in South Florida have off grid electric ready after the storm. That is a lot of stores in South Florida. Many other retailers have sytems similar and also gas stations to pump gas in South Florida but I do not know how many.


Some gas stations that have been listed:   https://www.scribd.com/document/358021805/gas-stations-with-generators-in-pbc#from_embed

More::  http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Miami-Dade-Gas-Stations-With-Generators-or-Generator-Capabilities-396065601.html

http://www.tbo.com/news/suncoast-news/2008/may/16/wp-publix-paying-big-bucks-for-backup-power-ar-145540/
Variety of stores grocery & gas with generators listed:::   https://www.miamidade.gov/hurricane/library/stores-with-generators.pdf


ScottR

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #15 on: September 05, 2017, 10:47:03 AM »
Boy this Irma at Cat.-5 looks nasty hope all who might be affected are able to get to safe area. Positive thought's going out to all in path :(

Orly

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #16 on: September 05, 2017, 10:49:52 AM »
There was a raid on the bottled water at Home Depot today. Where residents in this area were woefully unprepared for Wilma's attack, folks here tend to over-prepare nowadays. Those post-Wilma memories of waiting literally 8 hours at the gas station for a few gallons of gas and shopping the only open wal-mart in the county under the light of flashlights and "cash only" purchases really molded a generation.

Yes agree that food and water after the storm should be little problem in South Florida as stores now have generator systems etc. to handle off grid electric needs. I believe most if not all Publix stores in South Florida have off grid electric ready after the storm. That is a lot of stores in South Florida. Many other retailers have sytems similar and also gas stations to pump gas in South Florida but I do not know how many.


Some gas stations that have been listed:   https://www.scribd.com/document/358021805/gas-stations-with-generators-in-pbc#from_embed

More::  http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Miami-Dade-Gas-Stations-With-Generators-or-Generator-Capabilities-396065601.html

http://www.tbo.com/news/suncoast-news/2008/may/16/wp-publix-paying-big-bucks-for-backup-power-ar-145540/
Variety of stores grocery & gas with generators listed:::   https://www.miamidade.gov/hurricane/library/stores-with-generators.pdf


Some gas stations do have backup gens.  Problem is having fuel.  Same with Publix, power but shortage of goods.  Depends on road conditions after hurricane strike.  Strong storm strike will leave roads un-passable for a few days possibly.

Mark in Texas

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #17 on: September 05, 2017, 10:54:02 AM »
Hope you folks are reading these posts and checking out the images and graphics.

http://hardcoreweather.com/thread-26464-page-10.html

Based on a cold front's influence I just don't see this thing going into Florida as opposed to being turned east.

Orly

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #18 on: September 05, 2017, 11:58:55 AM »
Hope you folks are reading these posts and checking out the images and graphics.

http://hardcoreweather.com/thread-26464-page-10.html

Based on a cold front's influence I just don't see this thing going into Florida as opposed to being turned east.


I've read the last 2 pages but haven't seen anything that would lead to a different result than what is being forcasted presently.

johnb51

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #19 on: September 05, 2017, 12:58:36 PM »
Computer models have become very accurate in recent years.
John

Orly

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #20 on: September 05, 2017, 01:00:43 PM »
Computer models have become very accurate in recent years.

Yes, until they shift.  Regardless, I expect an impact of some sort from Irma.  Short of a big change in track, I doubt I'll get out of this one unscathed.

Dangermouse01

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #21 on: September 05, 2017, 04:08:28 PM »
Well, I was supposed to be in the Keys for a week starting this Friday.  >:(
Guess I will be sticking around home waiting to see if I need to board up or help the parents with their house.

Hope everyone in the path stays safe.

DM

palmcity

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #22 on: September 05, 2017, 04:20:41 PM »
Computer models have become very accurate in recent years.
Did anyone else notice the constant weather station on xfinity 213 South Fl Weather Headlines the blonde weather reporter at about 1:30p.m. telling everyone this is a very strong CYCLONE passing islands and heading toward Florida???

I believe someone informed her she must have slept through the class explaining cyclones are in other oceans like the pacific.... Hurricanes are in the Atlantic Ocean... funny..... She probably just made a mistake on TV....but still funny since she is the expert...

But yes weather reporting due to better equipment (radars etc. with planes and better measuring of pressure changes) showing high pressure areas over the Atlantic rotating clockwise pushing Irma westward while it is south of and close to the High pressure center and low pressure areas and fronts rotating winds counterclockwise and that is of course also a low pressure front coming over the U.S. toward Fl. to eventually turn it to the North.

So the models take these two fronts etc. into consideration and distance from the center of high and low pressure areas to approximately guess when the two areas will push it North....  But most of us would know it will head North eventually with the given 2 areas converging.

Agree with yes till they shift.... as pressures in each area and wind speed and how fast the fronts move or slow will change and thus the models also must change.

If they end up saying the cool front stops across florida.... That would probably be the areas to expect Irma to cross from the gulf and across florida.... Probably just depends on if the front stalls or even almost dissipates and thus allowing Irma to enter the Gulf etc.. If the front really retracts north with little influence affecting Irma.. who knows where it could go once it enters the Gulf as it would now also be very far away from the Bermuda High pressure winds...
« Last Edit: September 05, 2017, 04:51:46 PM by palmcity »

Future

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #23 on: September 05, 2017, 04:26:40 PM »
Winds sustained at 185mph will devastate many islands in its path.  I've seen the eye of 3 Cat 3s in my life.  Highest winds were 155mph.  But Cat 4 or 5...send these people your prayers.

Who do we know on the forum in its Caribbean path?

CTMIAMI

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #24 on: September 05, 2017, 05:59:33 PM »
185 mph wind will devastate All in its path. I was here in Florida during Andrew and 160 mph break most trees or strips them of all small branches and knows most to the ground
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