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Author Topic: Category 4 Hurricane Irma  (Read 7764 times)

dwfl

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #50 on: September 07, 2017, 03:11:14 PM »
Latest euro model just came out (has been more accurate than the GFS model throughout the entire storm so far). The latest euro model has it much more west and right up all of our you know whats



This forum has pages and pages of Irma speculation http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119059&sid=5f4e94bf1512fb3479f5e0473b072299&start=9120

Just go to the last few pages....page count is always increasing of course.

I never heard of "euro" before as far as hurricanes go. Euro is some group in Europe that has their super computers churning, trying to predict IRMAs path and intensity. There are other groups too with their own super computers doing the same. For us IRMA is destruction. For them IRMA is an informal competition.


Euro = ECMWF = European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Use whatever website, speculation forum or models you'd like Zands! The ECMWF "super computers" have been right on the money throughout the life of the storm so far.

BajaJohn

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #51 on: September 07, 2017, 04:06:08 PM »
Euro is one of four weather models favored by the weather services. They are all run by many agencies on a daily basis or even more frequently. This is one page that shows current model runs for all four models.
Each model is run multiple times with slightly different starting conditions to reflect the uncertainties in the available information. The results of these different runs are called ensembles and produce the dense mass of lines on the simulation maps. Each model performs better under certain conditions and those conditions can change very quickly. That means you can't rely on any one model to predict what is going to happen, even though one may have performed well so far.
There is little comfort in any of these models. Much of Florida is less than 100 miles across. Current hurricane force winds in Irma are up to 50 miles from the eye and storm force winds 160 miles from the eye. The storm is three times bigger than the width of Florida.

My preferred weather side is wunderground.com with information on Irma and Jose here. Their latest update is here. They express significant concern for flying glass from glass curtain hi-rises in some areas and also concern for storm surges as high as 10 feet in some areas. This page maps predicted storm surge for different strength hurricanes in southeast Florida.

It is hard to let go of things you have nurtured and cherished but as many have said here, you can replace or restore things but not lives. Please be safe and remember is is better to go back and repair damage than to not be there to return.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2017, 04:08:26 PM by BajaJohn »

DeeMango

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #52 on: September 07, 2017, 04:12:01 PM »
Stay safe everyone in Southeast Florida. I hope your green babies weather the storm, but I'm more concerned that all our members stay safe. Tampa Bay is forecast to be on the "easier" side of the melee, but we're prepping for a big storm as well. See you all on the other side!
Dee (I can haz a) Mango

dwfl

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #53 on: September 07, 2017, 04:15:19 PM »
Thanks for the explanation John. The closer it gets the more accurate and in agreement the models will be.

zands

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #54 on: September 07, 2017, 05:09:41 PM »
Euro = ECMWF = European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Use whatever website, speculation forum or models you'd like Zands! The ECMWF "super computers" have been right on the money throughout the life of the storm so far.

Thanks///now I know what Euro means

BajaJohn

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #55 on: September 07, 2017, 05:53:41 PM »
This looks like a very informative guide to hurricane safety produced by Palm Beach. A bit late for some actions such as tree care but other timely information also.

Tropheus76

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #56 on: September 07, 2017, 07:03:32 PM »
Remember that storm that was going to be off the Cape? Yeah, now its going to run up the spine of the state directly over Orlando when it gets this high.

Jsvand5

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #57 on: September 07, 2017, 07:29:19 PM »
Lastest model looks pretty much to be the worst case scenario for S FL. Good luck everyone.

Jose Spain

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #58 on: September 07, 2017, 07:53:35 PM »
I'm following all the evolution of the hurricane since I have family in Fl and sincere appreciation for the members of this forum. The predictions don't look pretty. I hope it will finally turn back to the ocean, but if not, everybody stay safe, best wishes for all of you from this side of the ocean.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2017, 08:58:19 AM by Jose Spain »
Jose

CTMIAMI

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #59 on: September 07, 2017, 08:14:12 PM »
Well, the center of current track is right over my grove. I know avocado trees will probably get destroyed at anything over 140 mph and this Irma has even more.  I don't know.......Like to get it done and over with. Too much information..... too many days before. 
Carlos
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acoff87

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #60 on: September 07, 2017, 11:17:54 PM »
 :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[...this is going to suck.
Stay safe everyone! Not looking good for my fellow south east Florida memebers. Fingers crossed!

dwfl

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #61 on: September 07, 2017, 11:56:34 PM »
:-[ :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[...this is going to suck.
Stay safe everyone! Not looking good for my fellow south east Florida memebers. Fingers crossed!

Not looking good for anybody in the keys or southeast or southwest Florida! Massive storm

FruitFreak

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #62 on: September 08, 2017, 12:13:27 AM »
Well, the center of current track is right over my grove. I know avocado trees will probably get destroyed at anything over 140 mph and this Irma has even more.  I don't know.......Like to get it done and over with. Too much information..... too many days before.

Has your grove taken a beating before?  Does severe pruning prior to impact mitigate damage? I'm hopeful that our losses are minimal. 
- Marley

dwfl

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #63 on: September 08, 2017, 12:53:54 AM »
What area of Naples, fruitfreak?

Jose Spain

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #64 on: September 08, 2017, 03:00:55 AM »
Here a size comparison of Irma and Andrew: https://twitter.com/JoelNihlean/status/905845846687789058



Jose

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #65 on: September 08, 2017, 04:27:16 AM »
Stay safe guys and protect your families, that is the priority.

Tropheus76

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #66 on: September 08, 2017, 08:22:52 AM »
On the bright side, it will only be a cat 2 when it gets here. Bad part is I am on the right side of it. yay. And my gym is closed tomorrow, grrrr. I am going to prune back some of my more spread out trees tomorrow just to be proactive, like my ice cream beans, mulberry, and my stupidly wide lychee tree(it grows like a weed, the others are very slow growers and are more compact.)

johnb51

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #67 on: September 08, 2017, 08:26:36 AM »
Well, the center of current track is right over my grove. I know avocado trees will probably get destroyed at anything over 140 mph and this Irma has even more.  I don't know.......Like to get it done and over with. Too much information..... too many days before.
Feeling very bad for you, Carlos.  Andrew wiped out all vegetation in your area 25 years ago, and it looks like deja vu with Irma.  Please stay safe.
John

Mark in Texas

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #68 on: September 08, 2017, 10:03:51 AM »
Here a size comparison of Irma and Andrew: https://twitter.com/JoelNihlean/status/905845846687789058

Good God!  Andrew is a wimp compared to Irma.  :-[

Easy for me to say but the hell with the trees and such!  They can be replaced and will grow fast.  i hope everyone in Florida has had time to make preparations and got out by now.  What makes matters worse is you have only one direction you can go to escape - north.  Good luck people.

BENDERSGROVE

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #69 on: September 08, 2017, 10:14:20 AM »
There was a raid on the bottled water at Home Depot today. Where residents in this area were woefully unprepared for Wilma's attack, folks here tend to over-prepare nowadays. Those post-Wilma memories of waiting literally 8 hours at the gas station for a few gallons of gas and shopping the only open wal-mart in the county under the light of flashlights and "cash only" purchases really molded a generation.
Be safe bro! Already resigned to the fact I will lose the nursery/grove, Just praying for my house

mangobaby

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #70 on: September 08, 2017, 10:24:55 AM »
Good luck guys. Please be safe.

pineislander

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #71 on: September 08, 2017, 11:08:35 AM »
Truly Tropical and Har have a new video out showing pre-storm pruning:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6q1mUPn5gvw

Solko

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #72 on: September 08, 2017, 11:38:47 AM »
I feel terrible for you guys, please stay safe. Best of luck for all.
Looking for seeds of Eugenia Beaurepairiana

dwfl

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #73 on: September 08, 2017, 11:58:38 AM »
European forecast model unfortunately starting to be agreed with by most other forecast models out there.. NOT good for us. Good luck everyone.

dwfl

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Re: Category 4 Hurricane Irma
« Reply #74 on: September 08, 2017, 02:12:51 PM »
Latest ECMWF model has the storm continuing to shift further west. Worst news for FL Keys/Naples/Fort Myers general SW FL area.


 

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