Author Topic: Hurricane Paulette  (Read 1636 times)

Future

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Hurricane Paulette
« on: September 11, 2020, 05:07:23 PM »
Looks like Monday, we’ll have a visitor.

Future

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2020, 05:27:32 PM »
http://weather.bm/maps/TropicalStormInfo.asp?WTNTnum=WTNT22&2020911222247

I’ve seen 3 eyes in my lifetime. This might be #4. 

JF

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2020, 05:54:08 PM »
We had Cristobal and Marco this year in the Yucatán and we are keeping an eye on another system off the west coast of Africa. I’ll be happy when the hurricane season is over. Stay safe Abayomi .

pineislander

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2020, 08:02:43 PM »
Paulette is not even to Bermuda you may be watching TD19.
Looks like Paulette will recurve, there is a large HP ridge over the east coast but stay watching.
This is a good detailed forecast discussion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mx_RZIPC3M0
« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 08:05:01 PM by pineislander »

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2020, 09:50:04 AM »
The problem will be the TD19...

@TheSteveCop
#TD19 is moving considerably further south than forecast and is now on the southern edge of the 00z EPS guidance from last night. This could allow the system to have more time to strengthen, which would be quite problematic (as shown by the HWRF)

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2020, 11:04:14 AM »

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2020, 01:53:36 PM »
Hurricane Landfall on LA 8AM Tuesday...

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/255e84560cd373fe07213aaa5de65bb38d067d7b0b4fe6469752f5cab66e2bf9.png
TS Sally now...

Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 81.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
« Last Edit: September 12, 2020, 02:03:40 PM by Luisport »

bsbullie

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2020, 02:05:29 PM »
This is not a general hurricane thread.  Aboyami started a thread about Paulette because of its potential to landfall as a strong cat 2 or cat 3 on Bermuda, where he lives.

If you want to discuss Sally, you should start a new thread about its potential to strike the northern Gulf coast as a hurricane (or maybe those in the actual harm's way may want to start the thread).
- Rob

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2020, 02:06:54 PM »
This is not a general hurricane thread.  Aboyami started a thread about Paulette because of its potential to landfall as a strong cat 2 or cat 3 on Bermuda, where he lives.

If you want to discuss Sally, you should start a new thread about its potential to strike the northern Gulf coast as a hurricane (or maybe those in the actual harm's way may want to start the thread).
Yes i was just waiting...

Future

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2020, 06:51:40 PM »
Thanks Rob.

Last three updates remain consistent. The eye will pass over us early Monday.

High seasonal tides, high tide for landfall all make for an interesting mix. 

Cat 2 should not cause too much damage. But everyone is prepared. This year I’ll try the trash bag over (smallish) in ground  tree technique.  My banana trees just recovered from last year’s hurricane....

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2020, 07:01:48 PM »
@WxPatel
Recon made their first pass into TS #Paulette and found a storm on the cusp of hurricane status with FL winds >70kts with SFMRs around 60kts in the western eyewall. The extrapolated pressure was 983mb so the NHC estimate of 70mph/987 was fairly close to reality.

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2020, 07:51:56 AM »
PAULETTE MOVING CLOSER TO BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY THIS EVENING...

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/caf0c224d407a66046c67a15e6679766c12ea66395ca12759ec63f25c05c7395.png

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2020, 08:05:17 AM »

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2020, 10:55:29 AM »
Paulette now forecast to become a Major. Bad news for Bermuda...

11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 13

Location: 29.9°N 61.9°W

Moving: NW at 14 mph

Min pressure: 976 mb

Max sustained: 80 mph
« Last Edit: September 13, 2020, 10:58:17 AM by Luisport »

Future

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2020, 06:26:45 PM »
6am tomorrow. Direct hit. Trees bagged or pruned. Now just wait it out.

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2020, 04:44:23 AM »
6am tomorrow. Direct hit. Trees bagged or pruned. Now just wait it out.
Take care! Good luck!

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #16 on: September 14, 2020, 04:53:48 AM »
BULLETIN

Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 30

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020

500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...ENTIRE ISLAND OF BERMUDA INSIDE HURRICANE PAULETTE'S EYE...

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS TO RETURN FROM THE

SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHORTLY DUE TO PAULETTE'S SOUTHERN EYEWALL...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...32.3N 64.7W

ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

Future

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Re: Hurricane Paulette
« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2020, 12:22:52 PM »
It was 545am. It was quiet outside, except for the tree frogs. The sky directly above showcased a few stars. Not a drop of rain. The eye had arrived.  It was huge. It sat atop us for several hours.  Later, clouds rolled in but not so many the moon couldn’t peaked from behind them for a second.  After a noisy night punctuated by awesome stillness and quiet, I went back to bed.

So far, trash bags on trees has worked.  The storm’s other half yet to go...