Quote from: fruitlovers on June 24, 2018, 10:10:42 PM

I second what Fiddler says. If you know who's doing it, you''re much more likely to be able to do something about it. Trail cameras cost about $80 and work very well.
If it makes you feel better....i heard misery loves company....i had a thief takes bout 200 pounds of durians when they were still green. Could have sold them for $5 a pound. So about $1000 wasted.    Got photos, driver's license, even the name of the guy and the police is "still working on it" after several months. So don't expect police to do much about it. At least they don't care much about ag theft here.

https://me.me/i/r-luwuragong-such-nonsense-keith-budden-rayleigh-esser-round-like-3000451

Yeah, it's kinda like that here too. The prosecutor's office admitted to me that the thief was not being questioned in my case because all officers were busy with a case of a police officer being shot at. Maybe they will get to my case in about 2 years! 

New IR map:

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-488.jpg
https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-490.jpg

The Kapoho entry point has moved even further south.  On one hand, it's great that the area it's flowing over doesn't have much there.  On the other hand, I don't like how resistant it's being to go straight to the sea, as if it's built up somewhat of a barrier for itself. Kind of worries me that if it builds up too much resistance on the southern front, it might choose to flow into the remaining houses on the north side of Kapoho  :Þ

No change - neither improvement or worsening - in the health of the flow at the northern branch of the first fork. The partial obstruction that first appeared in the last IR image is still visible.

Resistance in going into sea? What resistance is that? The vast majority of the lava is going into deep sea right now.

This is just rocky coastline?

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=11tCiLa42FId7GMtg-4UkEoAI9QozTVFD&hl=en_US&ll=19.483772072867744%2C-154.81905203394876&z=17

Certainly looks shallow on all the maps I checked.

The Waiopae tidepools were covered several days ago.

New thermal image out.

Older: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-480.jpg
Old: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-483.jpg
New: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-485.jpg

Only obvious change is that the Kapoho entry point has moved from the northern end to the southern end - I guess she decided that there's some tidepool areas that she's yet to destroy  :Þ. The rest of the flow looks largely unchanged. Oh, and also they've stopped following F16 / F18, calling them just "small flows"

All the tide pools destroyed many days ago. That new area covered is over rocky coastline with no tidepools.

The first 4 photos are M. glazioviana. The last photo might be achachairu. Leaves are right shape, but mine are more glossy than the ones in your photo. BTW all the fruits turn yellow first and then orange when fully ripe.

Good God that seems to be moving fast.  Is that for real?  I was in Puna years ago as flows were taking out houses, roads, etc.  The flow I was close to on a road was creeping, not moving hardly at all.

Yes it's for real. Was estimated to be of speed of 7 meters per second close to fountain and 1 meter per second at ocean entry. 7 meters per seconds was said to be 15 mph? That would mean that the 8 mile trajectory to ocean makes it there in about 1/2 an hour.
I'm guessing the flow you saw was the Kalapana flow? That was in 1990, when i first got here. That flow moved slow because it was totally different from current eruption. The Kalapana flow was lava overflowing from a lake inside of the  crater (Puu O.o). The current flow is from lava fountains. In other words, lava that is at very high pressure and highly liquid.

If you believe this eruption is slowing down, or that it can't reach the coast elsewhere, then watch this video:
https://www.facebook.com/milekalincoln.hnn/videos/1816004911791728/?hc_ref=ARSz4vyyzglJMG_PpV3Ba7tyTwN5NbhAPKgq1jktk5jiBUtDlfKRXVmjUR0OQWrftHM

Quote from: fruitlovers on June 11, 2018, 02:08:13 AM

Yes, it's all hypothetical because levee has not broken and there's not really any reason to think it will break, just something they're watching carefully.
If the flow were to go into parts of Lava Tree park, then the flow would proceed just east of Nanawale. Don't look at google maps. Look at a topo maps and you can get much better idea of actual topography, for example: https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/img4/ht_icons/Browse/HI/HI_Pahoa%20South_349642_1994_24000.jpg

That's an excellent topo map, thanks for that. But it also shows the ridge north of Lava Tree.  Since this is a US map, I'll assume that these are feet; it shows that the ridge is 40-60 feet high.  Do you think it would go to flow over a 40-60 foot ridge?  Or over the lava flow that's met up with the ridge on its eastern end?  I'm just trying to understand what you're picturing.  I can see that as a possibility, but it's not to me obvious that that's the easiest path downhill, for lava starting in Leilani at the height of the ridge line.  It certainly would be if the north lobe hadn't already butted up against the ridge...

A big unknown, at least for me, is the thickness of the flow in the north lobe at that point. If it's not that thick, then it's not much of a barrier.

And yes, I'm glad that this is all hypothetical at this point 

Quote

All the geologists are saying there is no sign of letup.

They've noted a reduction in flow rates, as indicated by fountain heights, at several points in time.  It's been mentioned in some of the USGS videos.  As of 3 days ago, they were talking about it varying from 130 to 230 feet.  It used to be a sustained 250 feet.  So long as flow rates keep declining, that will reduce it's ability to flow such long distances away from the fissure.  Of course, I have no ability to say whether it will continue declining as such, only to note that that's the general trend of volcanic eruptions.

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The big danger is not for Nanawale, but for the rest of Leilani. Fissures 9 and 10, which are uprift of current flow have been gassing and there has been some incandesence, and they could go off again. I hope that does not happen because if that happened a much larger part of Leilani residential area would be destroyed.

Not at all to downplay the danger to the rest of Leilani. I certainly have no ability to say what's going to happen underground.  All I can say about the lava is, whenever it's on the surface, it will move downhill - up to the point that it cuts off its own path to move downhill, or something else does.  Wherein it'll emerge "somewhere else" and flow downhill from there. That's just what lava does 

Even if 9 and 10 don't reactivate, there's a serious risk of new flow lobes at some point in the future within Leilani, walled off by previous lobes from taking the easiest route to the coast.

It's difficult to predict what the lava flow will do. When flows have continuous stops and starts then they can easily build up walls to 40-60 foot height. That's not very likely, but it is possible.
BTW, there is not a single scientist saying that the flow rate is not sufficient to reach Government Beach road. On the contrary plans are in the works to have an alternate road out of the area. The flow rate is sufficient to reach 8 miles from Leilani to Kapho, so i don't know why you would think it could not reach the coastline elsewhere? These fountains are flowing here 24/7 for weeks on end. I think you don't realize the massive amounts of lava flow that is occuring.

Yes, it's all hypothetical because levee has not broken and there's not really any reason to think it will break, just something they're watching carefully.
If the flow were to go into parts of Lava Tree park, then the flow would proceed just east of Nanawale. Don't look at google maps. Look at a topo maps and you can get much better idea of actual topography, for example: https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/img4/ht_icons/Browse/HI/HI_Pahoa%20South_349642_1994_24000.jpg
As for your idea that this is not a new flow and it can't reach Government Beach road, what do you base that on? All the geologists are saying there is no sign of letup. It's pumping just as much material now as it was before. The only thing that has changed is that there are less fissures erupting. All the flow is concentrated in fissure 8. But that one is still maintaining fountains of 200 feet. It's just getting a lot less attention by media now because it's all going into the ocean and no houses are being destroyed.
The big danger is not for Nanawale, but for the rest of Leilani. Fissures 9 and 10, which are uprift of current flow have been gassing and there has been some incandesence, and they could go off again. I hope that does not happen because if that happened a much larger part of Leilani residential area would be destroyed.

That very small amount of lateral movement in Leiani is in a different area from the area feared levee could break, which is close to intersection of 132 and Pohoiki road. If  levee broke it could flood the area known as Lava Tree park, which is on 132. Nanawale is not in any danger. Look at lines of steepest descent (blue lines on map). Any flow there would take the lava just east of Nanawale and cross Government Beach road on the coast. Problem with that is that such a fllow would block escape route to 2 more different communities, Papaya Farm Road and Waa Waa.

Quote from: fruitlovers on June 09, 2018, 06:25:34 PM

Quote from: Seanny on June 09, 2018, 12:25:26 AM

Do the owners get to extend property line to new expansion?

No they retain their original boundaries. If what you suggest happened than their property would increase 100x or more.

That's unfortunate.  Here I'm pretty sure that property owners land actually gets extended (not just from lava flows, but also jökulhlaup, which are volcanic glacial outburst floods carrying massive amounts of sediment... sort of like "temporarily add a flood-stage Amazon River to the country").

New map - even smaller changes (although they're just showing one day of flows this time, not two). Also, the increasing depth of the water could be distorting how much material is actually being laid down.


 
They've now added in a dashed line for the former coastline, which is helpful.

Hopefully she'll lay down a lot of material just below the waves.  Some new shallows that can be recolonized over time.  Fresh nutrients and unoccupied habitats for life. New formations for divers to see.

Yeah, I'm trying to see the positives here, I really am 

The amount of material being laid down is still massive. Forget how many millions of cubic yards per day was quoted. Yes a lot of the material is going into very deep water so doesn't show up on that map.

Quote from: Luisport on June 09, 2018, 10:27:08 AM

One member from Forum Bananas were i post lost everythind he and his family have...

I believe that Alva was also active on this forum from time to time as "chupa king".

Not sure, but i will ask him.

Quote from: Luisport on June 09, 2018, 10:27:08 AM

One member from Forum Bananas were i post lost everythind he and his family have...

If you can make a donation thru Alva's wife Paypal Account which is Mommyinthegarden@gmail.com

Nice young couple. Very sad to see them lose the new house they had just built, and all the plants they had put in.