Computer models have become very accurate in recent years.
Did anyone else notice the constant weather station on xfinity 213 South Fl Weather Headlines the blonde weather reporter at about 1:30p.m. telling everyone this is a very strong CYCLONE passing islands and heading toward Florida???
I believe someone informed her she must have slept through the class explaining cyclones are in other oceans like the pacific.... Hurricanes are in the Atlantic Ocean... funny..... She probably just made a mistake on TV....but still funny since she is the expert...
But yes weather reporting due to better equipment (radars etc. with planes and better measuring of pressure changes) showing high pressure areas over the Atlantic rotating clockwise pushing Irma westward while it is south of and close to the High pressure center and low pressure areas and fronts rotating winds counterclockwise and that is of course also a low pressure front coming over the U.S. toward Fl. to eventually turn it to the North.
So the models take these two fronts etc. into consideration and distance from the center of high and low pressure areas to approximately guess when the two areas will push it North.... But most of us would know it will head North eventually with the given 2 areas converging.
Agree with yes till they shift.... as pressures in each area and wind speed and how fast the fronts move or slow will change and thus the models also must change.
If they end up saying the cool front stops across florida.... That would probably be the areas to expect Irma to cross from the gulf and across florida.... Probably just depends on if the front stalls or even almost dissipates and thus allowing Irma to enter the Gulf etc.. If the front really retracts north with little influence affecting Irma.. who knows where it could go once it enters the Gulf as it would now also be very far away from the Bermuda High pressure winds...