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Author Topic: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!  (Read 19776 times)

fruitlovers

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #250 on: June 11, 2018, 02:08:13 AM »
Yes, it's all hypothetical because levee has not broken and there's not really any reason to think it will break, just something they're watching carefully.
If the flow were to go into parts of Lava Tree park, then the flow would proceed just east of Nanawale. Don't look at google maps. Look at a topo maps and you can get much better idea of actual topography, for example: https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/img4/ht_icons/Browse/HI/HI_Pahoa%20South_349642_1994_24000.jpg
As for your idea that this is not a new flow and it can't reach Government Beach road, what do you base that on? All the geologists are saying there is no sign of letup. It's pumping just as much material now as it was before. The only thing that has changed is that there are less fissures erupting. All the flow is concentrated in fissure 8. But that one is still maintaining fountains of 200 feet. It's just getting a lot less attention by media now because it's all going into the ocean and no houses are being destroyed.
The big danger is not for Nanawale, but for the rest of Leilani. Fissures 9 and 10, which are uprift of current flow have been gassing and there has been some incandesence, and they could go off again. I hope that does not happen because if that happened a much larger part of Leilani residential area would be destroyed.
Oscar

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #251 on: June 11, 2018, 04:14:04 AM »
Yes, it's all hypothetical because levee has not broken and there's not really any reason to think it will break, just something they're watching carefully.
If the flow were to go into parts of Lava Tree park, then the flow would proceed just east of Nanawale. Don't look at google maps. Look at a topo maps and you can get much better idea of actual topography, for example: https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/img4/ht_icons/Browse/HI/HI_Pahoa%20South_349642_1994_24000.jpg

That's an excellent topo map, thanks for that. But it also shows the ridge north of Lava Tree.  Since this is a US map, I'll assume that these are feet; it shows that the ridge is 40-60 feet high.  Do you think it would go to flow over a 40-60 foot ridge?  Or over the lava flow that's met up with the ridge on its eastern end?  I'm just trying to understand what you're picturing.  I can see that as a possibility, but it's not to me obvious that that's the easiest path downhill, for lava starting in Leilani at the height of the ridge line.  It certainly would be if the north lobe hadn't already butted up against the ridge...

A big unknown, at least for me, is the thickness of the flow in the north lobe at that point. If it's not that thick, then it's not much of a barrier.

And yes, I'm glad that this is all hypothetical at this point  :)

Quote
All the geologists are saying there is no sign of letup.

They've noted a reduction in flow rates, as indicated by fountain heights, at several points in time.  It's been mentioned in some of the USGS videos.  As of 3 days ago, they were talking about it varying from 130 to 230 feet.  It used to be a sustained 250 feet.  So long as flow rates keep declining, that will reduce it's ability to flow such long distances away from the fissure.  Of course, I have no ability to say whether it will continue declining as such, only to note that that's the general trend of volcanic eruptions.

Quote
The big danger is not for Nanawale, but for the rest of Leilani. Fissures 9 and 10, which are uprift of current flow have been gassing and there has been some incandesence, and they could go off again. I hope that does not happen because if that happened a much larger part of Leilani residential area would be destroyed.

Not at all to downplay the danger to the rest of Leilani. I certainly have no ability to say what's going to happen underground.  All I can say about the lava is, whenever it's on the surface, it will move downhill - up to the point that it cuts off its own path to move downhill, or something else does.  Wherein it'll emerge "somewhere else" and flow downhill from there. That's just what lava does  :)

Even if 9 and 10 don't reactivate, there's a serious risk of new flow lobes at some point in the future within Leilani, walled off by previous lobes from taking the easiest route to the coast.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2018, 07:54:21 AM by KarenRei »
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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #252 on: June 11, 2018, 08:02:52 AM »
New IR maps out.

Old: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-476.jpg
New: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-478.jpg

The Kapoho flow just doesn't look as vigorous, although part of that could be contrast, and you never know what's in deeper lava tubes. But the noteworthy change is near Leilani; there's definitely multiple new flows spilling out to the sides of the main channel. In many places, almost like the flow is either getting stopped up (outflow) or accelerating (inflow), forcing the lava level in the channel to rise.  You can even see what looks like some "islands" in the flow going under.

Looks like the potential for even a lobe or two towards PGV.

It's especially dramatic when you zoom in on the images.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2018, 08:07:05 AM by KarenRei »
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fruitlovers

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #253 on: June 11, 2018, 05:46:37 PM »
New IR maps out.

Old: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-476.jpg
New: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-478.jpg

The Kapoho flow just doesn't look as vigorous, although part of that could be contrast, and you never know what's in deeper lava tubes. But the noteworthy change is near Leilani; there's definitely multiple new flows spilling out to the sides of the main channel. In many places, almost like the flow is either getting stopped up (outflow) or accelerating (inflow), forcing the lava level in the channel to rise.  You can even see what looks like some "islands" in the flow going under.

Looks like the potential for even a lobe or two towards PGV.

It's especially dramatic when you zoom in on the images.

There are lots of things you don't know about or can't see from these maps without being here on ground. For example, in Leilani and on Noni Farms Rd. (132) there are huge cracks were massive amounts of lava has gone underground. At one point close to the coast there is also a crater that swallowed up a huge quantity of lava.
The diminishing height of the fountain does not mean lava flow is decreasing. There are currently 3 fountains blowing out of fissure 8, so just because the height of one of them is lower does not mean anything about total flow rate. In fact, the conclusion of geologists is the opposite of what you are making. They are saying that the flow could increase because gas emission from fissure 8 just doubled: 
"Yesterday's measurements show that gas emissions from the fissure system have nearly doubled, possibly indicating an increase in eruption rate from Fissure 8, scientists say."
http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2018/06/10/6-pm-eruption-update-minor-spillover-of-fissure-8-lava-channels/
Oscar

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #254 on: June 11, 2018, 05:54:55 PM »
Yes, it's all hypothetical because levee has not broken and there's not really any reason to think it will break, just something they're watching carefully.
If the flow were to go into parts of Lava Tree park, then the flow would proceed just east of Nanawale. Don't look at google maps. Look at a topo maps and you can get much better idea of actual topography, for example: https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/img4/ht_icons/Browse/HI/HI_Pahoa%20South_349642_1994_24000.jpg

That's an excellent topo map, thanks for that. But it also shows the ridge north of Lava Tree.  Since this is a US map, I'll assume that these are feet; it shows that the ridge is 40-60 feet high.  Do you think it would go to flow over a 40-60 foot ridge?  Or over the lava flow that's met up with the ridge on its eastern end?  I'm just trying to understand what you're picturing.  I can see that as a possibility, but it's not to me obvious that that's the easiest path downhill, for lava starting in Leilani at the height of the ridge line.  It certainly would be if the north lobe hadn't already butted up against the ridge...

A big unknown, at least for me, is the thickness of the flow in the north lobe at that point. If it's not that thick, then it's not much of a barrier.

And yes, I'm glad that this is all hypothetical at this point  :)

Quote
All the geologists are saying there is no sign of letup.

They've noted a reduction in flow rates, as indicated by fountain heights, at several points in time.  It's been mentioned in some of the USGS videos.  As of 3 days ago, they were talking about it varying from 130 to 230 feet.  It used to be a sustained 250 feet.  So long as flow rates keep declining, that will reduce it's ability to flow such long distances away from the fissure.  Of course, I have no ability to say whether it will continue declining as such, only to note that that's the general trend of volcanic eruptions.

Quote
The big danger is not for Nanawale, but for the rest of Leilani. Fissures 9 and 10, which are uprift of current flow have been gassing and there has been some incandesence, and they could go off again. I hope that does not happen because if that happened a much larger part of Leilani residential area would be destroyed.

Not at all to downplay the danger to the rest of Leilani. I certainly have no ability to say what's going to happen underground.  All I can say about the lava is, whenever it's on the surface, it will move downhill - up to the point that it cuts off its own path to move downhill, or something else does.  Wherein it'll emerge "somewhere else" and flow downhill from there. That's just what lava does  :)

Even if 9 and 10 don't reactivate, there's a serious risk of new flow lobes at some point in the future within Leilani, walled off by previous lobes from taking the easiest route to the coast.
It's difficult to predict what the lava flow will do. When flows have continuous stops and starts then they can easily build up walls to 40-60 foot height. That's not very likely, but it is possible.
BTW, there is not a single scientist saying that the flow rate is not sufficient to reach Government Beach road. On the contrary plans are in the works to have an alternate road out of the area. The flow rate is sufficient to reach 8 miles from Leilani to Kapho, so i don't know why you would think it could not reach the coastline elsewhere? These fountains are flowing here 24/7 for weeks on end. I think you don't realize the massive amounts of lava flow that is occuring.
Oscar

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #255 on: June 12, 2018, 05:11:02 AM »
The diminishing height of the fountain does not mean lava flow is decreasing. There are currently 3 fountains blowing out of fissure 8, so just because the height of one of them is lower does not mean anything about total flow rate. In fact, the conclusion of geologists is the opposite of what you are making. They are saying that the flow could increase because gas emission from fissure 8 just doubled: 
"Yesterday's measurements show that gas emissions from the fissure system have nearly doubled, possibly indicating an increase in eruption rate from Fissure 8, scientists say."
http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2018/06/10/6-pm-eruption-update-minor-spillover-of-fissure-8-lava-channels/


Not at all in contradiction with "Of course, I have no ability to say whether it will continue declining as such, only to note that that's the general trend of volcanic eruptions", and in line with "almost like the flow is either getting stopped up (outflow) or accelerating (inflow), forcing the lava level in the channel to rise."  :)  Any eruption will fluctuate up and down in the short term. I just find it unlikely that by the time the current lobe would get cut off and a new lobe would form and traverse that much terrain, that the flow rate would still be high enough to sustain it - that's all.

But it's good that they're preparing for that possibility, however.

As for Leilani, from the latest map, it looks like the hypothetical situation isn't an issue, at least as of today:



Should be clearer once the next IR map comes out whether the lava levels have gone back down in the main flow channel.  That IR map really made it look like the lava had "overflowed", rather than the channel itself rupturing.
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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #256 on: June 12, 2018, 05:16:18 AM »
 
@CivilDefenseHI
 5 hH 5 horas
Mais
CD, Mon, 6/11, 6PM Gas emissions from the fissure eruption very high.  Trades pushing vog SW around the island to Kona area. Monitor latest air quality measurements http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/vmap/ . Community meeting on volcanic ash & vog Thurs, 5:30 p.m. Ocean View Community Center.

KarenRei

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #257 on: June 13, 2018, 08:29:50 AM »
IR maps out.

Old: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-478.jpg
New: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-480.jpg

Most notable news: fissure 18 has opened back up, although at a very low rate.  So either fissure 8 has started clogging, or there's renewed pressure underground.

The liquid height in the main fissure 8 flow appears to have gone back down. One noticeable difference: one of the branched paths halfway along the flow appears to have died off.  It's not clear when this happened; if this started blocking off a couple days ago then that could have been what raised the lava levels in the flow from fissure 8.  If it's new, however, it could lead to another increase in flow heights.
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KarenRei

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #258 on: June 14, 2018, 06:48:56 PM »
New map:



For the first time, there's no new expansion near the ocean entries - only underwater.  There's a couple new expansions closer to the fissure - hopefully they'll stop like the last one did.  No news about fissures 16 and 18, except that they are still erupting.

ED: IR out.

Old2: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-478.jpg
Old1: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-480.jpg
New: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-483.jpg

The flow path up to Kapoho appears to continue to lose side channels, and just in general looks less healthy.
Fissures 16 and 18 appear to be in decline once again.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2018, 09:18:10 AM by KarenRei »
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fruitlovers

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #259 on: June 16, 2018, 05:13:10 AM »
If you believe this eruption is slowing down, or that it can't reach the coast elsewhere, then watch this video:
https://www.facebook.com/milekalincoln.hnn/videos/1816004911791728/?hc_ref=ARSz4vyyzglJMG_PpV3Ba7tyTwN5NbhAPKgq1jktk5jiBUtDlfKRXVmjUR0OQWrftHM
Oscar

Mark in Texas

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #260 on: June 16, 2018, 09:20:25 AM »
Good God that seems to be moving fast.  Is that for real?  I was in Puna years ago as flows were taking out houses, roads, etc.  The flow I was close to on a road was creeping, not moving hardly at all.

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #261 on: June 16, 2018, 10:25:56 AM »
Those speeds seem reasonable for near the fissure.  That corresponds to a cross section of around 7 square meters.  Remember that when it emerges it's hot and has very low viscosity, so it prefers fast, thin flows.  The further away from the vent you get the cooler the lava, the higher the viscosity, and the more it deepens and spreads out.  Here's a video that has shots of what the flow looks like at the Kapoho entry:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2ZL9tI4eGw

A week ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZ1bkxAuxTk

The flow is only 100m/s. Which is a lot by Hawaiian standards, but not global standards. Fountaining fluctuating, but in general 130-200 feet.

New map. Not much changed, although it's slowly filling in the gap between the Kapoho flow and the northern lobe (which may be due to the reduction in flow channels on the Kapoho flow, as per the IR image, causing some spillover).



It's not really blocked in there - beyond the small gap between the Kapoho flow and the northern lobe, one can expect the flow thickness near the gap to be significantly less than the thickness at the main channel from which the lava is pouring in.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2018, 10:35:22 AM by KarenRei »
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fruitlovers

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #262 on: June 16, 2018, 06:12:35 PM »
Good God that seems to be moving fast.  Is that for real?  I was in Puna years ago as flows were taking out houses, roads, etc.  The flow I was close to on a road was creeping, not moving hardly at all.
Yes it's for real. Was estimated to be of speed of 7 meters per second close to fountain and 1 meter per second at ocean entry. 7 meters per seconds was said to be 15 mph? That would mean that the 8 mile trajectory to ocean makes it there in about 1/2 an hour.
I'm guessing the flow you saw was the Kalapana flow? That was in 1990, when i first got here. That flow moved slow because it was totally different from current eruption. The Kalapana flow was lava overflowing from a lake inside of the  crater (Puu O.o). The current flow is from lava fountains. In other words, lava that is at very high pressure and highly liquid.
Oscar

Mark in Texas

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #263 on: June 17, 2018, 07:53:56 AM »
That's just plain crazy, and sad.   Looks to be faked, but I believe you.

1990 would be about right.

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #264 on: June 17, 2018, 08:10:44 AM »
oh wow that flow looks so fast. I am shocked!

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #265 on: June 17, 2018, 08:33:45 AM »
New thermal image out.

Older: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-480.jpg
Old: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-483.jpg
New: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-485.jpg

Only obvious change is that the Kapoho entry point has moved from the northern end to the southern end - I guess she decided that there's some tidepool areas that she's yet to destroy  :. The rest of the flow looks largely unchanged. Oh, and also they've stopped following F16 / F18, calling them just "small flows"
« Last Edit: June 17, 2018, 08:38:35 AM by KarenRei »
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zands

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #266 on: June 17, 2018, 02:48:54 PM »
If you believe this eruption is slowing down, or that it can't reach the coast elsewhere, then watch this video:
https://www.facebook.com/milekalincoln.hnn/videos/1816004911791728/?hc_ref=ARSz4vyyzglJMG_PpV3Ba7tyTwN5NbhAPKgq1jktk5jiBUtDlfKRXVmjUR0OQWrftHM

More fast flow lava rivers at her twitter page. Mileka Lincoln. Check out her Instagram page https://www.instagram.com/milekalincoln/
I posted this elsewhere and people were amazed.
Good luck, stay safe Oscar!

fruitlovers

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #267 on: June 18, 2018, 03:09:12 AM »
That's just plain crazy, and sad.   Looks to be faked, but I believe you.

1990 would be about right.
Definitely not fake. Went to see it last night. Looked just like in that video. Calculated the 7 meters per second rate and it came out to 33 mph. But now hear flow rate can vary at the fountain from 30 to 45 mph.
1990 flow was the one that took out the Kalapana subdivision and black sand beaches.
Oscar

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #268 on: June 18, 2018, 03:14:27 AM »
New thermal image out.

Older: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-480.jpg
Old: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-483.jpg
New: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-485.jpg

Only obvious change is that the Kapoho entry point has moved from the northern end to the southern end - I guess she decided that there's some tidepool areas that she's yet to destroy  :. The rest of the flow looks largely unchanged. Oh, and also they've stopped following F16 / F18, calling them just "small flows"
All the tide pools destroyed many days ago. That new area covered is over rocky coastline with no tidepools.
Oscar

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fruitlovers

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #270 on: June 18, 2018, 04:41:52 PM »
This is just rocky coastline?

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=11tCiLa42FId7GMtg-4UkEoAI9QozTVFD&hl=en_US&ll=19.483772072867744%2C-154.81905203394876&z=17

Certainly looks shallow on all the maps I checked.
The Waiopae tidepools were covered several days ago.
Oscar

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #271 on: June 18, 2018, 05:09:55 PM »
Is the lava map wrong, or are the things that look like tidepools and are labeled as tidepools wrong?

Regarless, moot point now with the latest map:

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fruitlovers

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #272 on: June 18, 2018, 06:44:15 PM »
I go by reports of people that actually live there. The area now being covered is well south of the tidepools. Also the maps tend to be a couple of days out of date by the time they publish them.
Oscar

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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #273 on: June 20, 2018, 10:16:55 AM »
Latest map. Not too much on the map itself...



However, the IR is more interesting.

Old: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-485.jpg
New: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-488.jpg

There seems to be some overflow from the main channel during the first third of its travels. The cause looks to potentially be at the first fork: the northern channel looks to be half closed off. If that continues and that channel dies, it'll be the most alteration in flow patterns since the Kapoho flow began.  Guess we'll know tomorrow. It could still reestablish, but if it gets any more cutoff from how it is now, I'd expect its closure to be a self-perpetuating process.
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Re: Earthquake on big island Ha. made new eruption Pahoa evacuated !!
« Reply #274 on: June 22, 2018, 06:01:20 AM »
New IR map:

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-488.jpg
https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-490.jpg

The Kapoho entry point has moved even further south.  On one hand, it's great that the area it's flowing over doesn't have much there.  On the other hand, I don't like how resistant it's being to go straight to the sea, as if it's built up somewhat of a barrier for itself. Kind of worries me that if it builds up too much resistance on the southern front, it might choose to flow into the remaining houses on the north side of Kapoho  :

No change - neither improvement or worsening - in the health of the flow at the northern branch of the first fork. The partial obstruction that first appeared in the last IR image is still visible.
J, g er a rkta surnar plntur slandi. Nei, g er ekki klikku. Jja, kannski...

 

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