Author Topic: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?  (Read 7971 times)

swincher

  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 155
    • Western WA (zone 8b, zone 10a greenhouse)
    • View Profile
Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« on: February 01, 2021, 02:20:07 PM »
Seven days is still a long time for weather models to change their minds, but anyone with sensitive trees in FL might want to keep an eye on the forecast and start thinking about any protection measures you might want to get ready:


bovine421

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1978
    • Shake Rag Rd Fl 9b
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2021, 03:05:16 PM »
Boy I wish you would have posted that seven or eight hours ago I went to work without a jacket. The wind is already here. I know You Zone Pushers are saying boo hoo! But you don't understand I have thin blood like an iguana. :-[

« Last Edit: February 01, 2021, 03:08:19 PM by bovine421 »
Tete Nene Julie Juliet Carrie Ice Cream Coconut Cream Little Gem  Dot  Mallika PPK  OS  Pina Colada Cotton Candy Buxton Spice Karen Michelle M-4 Beverly Marc Anthony White Pirie Lychee Cherilata Plantain Barbados Cherry

Dangermouse01

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 320
  • East coast, Central Florida
    • USA, Palm Bay, FL 32907, Zone 9B
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2021, 03:14:17 PM »
More like 7 hours than 7 days.
Tomorrow morning low is showing 40, Wednesday morning low is showing 36 in Melbourne, coastal central Florida. I will still be wearing flip flops.
Wind is blowing right now at 26, but supposed to start slacking.

A week from now, lows are supposed to be at 59.

swincher

  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 155
    • Western WA (zone 8b, zone 10a greenhouse)
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2021, 04:04:23 PM »
More like 7 hours than 7 days.
Tomorrow morning low is showing 40, Wednesday morning low is showing 36 in Melbourne, coastal central Florida. I will still be wearing flip flops.
Wind is blowing right now at 26, but supposed to start slacking.

A week from now, lows are supposed to be at 59.

The weather models show much colder lows on the 8th than today, the forecasts will catch up soon.

Fishinsteeg234

  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 49
    • USA, FL, Longwood, zone 9b
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2021, 06:57:19 PM »
Question: temps in Orlando are approaching mid 30’s for the next three nights. It’s not freezing temps, but is the wind chill (10-20mph winds)still a factor? Cover or not to cover small mango, atemoya, sapodilla, guava, carambola trees? Thus far this winter temps in mid to high 30’s has not done damage, but this wind wasn’t a factor before. No frost warning yet, just wind chill warning. Protection still needed?

bovine421

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1978
    • Shake Rag Rd Fl 9b
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2021, 08:05:55 PM »
Question: temps in Orlando are approaching mid 30’s for the next three nights. It’s not freezing temps, but is the wind chill (10-20mph winds)still a factor? Cover or not to cover small mango, atemoya, sapodilla, guava, carambola trees? Thus far this winter temps in mid to high 30’s has not done damage, but this wind wasn’t a factor before. No frost warning yet, just wind chill warning. Protection still needed?
I am more concerned about Wednesday The Weather Channel Says the winds will be light and variable at 5 miles an hour. The strong wind should keep the frost from settling. But Wednesday sounds like a frost warning.
Without building a frame.Trying to cover my orange Sherbert with a frost blanket without damaging the flowers will be Mission Impossible.
Dagnabbit Rob do you always have to be on target >:(


« Last Edit: February 01, 2021, 08:42:42 PM by bovine421 »
Tete Nene Julie Juliet Carrie Ice Cream Coconut Cream Little Gem  Dot  Mallika PPK  OS  Pina Colada Cotton Candy Buxton Spice Karen Michelle M-4 Beverly Marc Anthony White Pirie Lychee Cherilata Plantain Barbados Cherry

hrnsyrk

  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 33
    • Orlando, FL
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2021, 08:20:12 PM »
As long as we have wind or clouds , it wont be frost but if wind stops and no clouds , it will be a hard one ! anyway soursops are going to the indoor !

bsbullie

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9621
    • USA, Boynton Beach, FL 33472, Zone 10a
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #7 on: February 01, 2021, 08:40:21 PM »
I am in Wellington,  forecast low is 44 tonight, followed by 39 and 37.  Next week shows much warmer temps...
- Rob

bovine421

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1978
    • Shake Rag Rd Fl 9b
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2021, 09:00:45 PM »
As long as we have wind or clouds , it wont be frost but if wind stops and no clouds , it will be a hard one ! anyway soursops are going to the indoor !
My ZIP code says clear skies low 35. What is the margin of error for The Weather Channel - 3
Great as soon as I open my piehole boasting about 100% flowering here comes the polar vortex :(
Tete Nene Julie Juliet Carrie Ice Cream Coconut Cream Little Gem  Dot  Mallika PPK  OS  Pina Colada Cotton Candy Buxton Spice Karen Michelle M-4 Beverly Marc Anthony White Pirie Lychee Cherilata Plantain Barbados Cherry

kapps

  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 169
    • Florida, Zone 10A
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #9 on: February 01, 2021, 09:29:18 PM »
For me, TWC says 37, 34, and 35 degrees. WU says 37, 33, 35. At what point do I need to worry about my smallish mangos? Tuesday night has 10+ mph winds but Wednesday is supposedly down to 5mph.

Kevin Jones

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2172
    • Alabama - USA
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2021, 09:35:34 PM »
Sunday night low: 22 degrees... Yikes!

Kevin


Mike T

  • Zone 12a
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9012
  • Cairns,Nth Qld, Australia
    • Zone 12a
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #11 on: February 01, 2021, 09:35:52 PM »
https://www.windy.com/-Temperature-temp?temp,10.154,27.989,3

If you look at the global distribution of heat currently you can see this North American situation. Pull out the frame or move it around

Mike T

  • Zone 12a
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9012
  • Cairns,Nth Qld, Australia
    • Zone 12a
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2021, 09:45:22 PM »
If you hit a few other layers on the right the pollution ones are pretty shocking. It is interesting how cool South America is compared to SE Asia, Australia and sth Pacific.Southern hemisphere Africa is also pretty cool for Summer.

shot

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 967
    • usa fl bokeelia 10
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2021, 10:20:07 PM »
GFS has changed for next week warmer.But keep look out very cold to the north.

bovine421

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1978
    • Shake Rag Rd Fl 9b
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #14 on: February 01, 2021, 10:52:19 PM »
For me, TWC says 37, 34, and 35 degrees. WU says 37, 33, 35. At what point do I need to worry about my smallish mangos? Tuesday night has 10+ mph winds but Wednesday is supposedly down to 5mph.
If your trees are small and don't have Much hardwood on them. I would be looking to cover them and put an incandescent light  underneath.
It's better to be mumbling what a waste of time then to be trying to kick yourself in the back side
Tete Nene Julie Juliet Carrie Ice Cream Coconut Cream Little Gem  Dot  Mallika PPK  OS  Pina Colada Cotton Candy Buxton Spice Karen Michelle M-4 Beverly Marc Anthony White Pirie Lychee Cherilata Plantain Barbados Cherry

bovine421

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1978
    • Shake Rag Rd Fl 9b
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #15 on: February 03, 2021, 06:07:42 AM »
For my ZIP code the weather's channels margin of error has been + 3 which I'm quite happy about. They predicted 36 it is 41 at 6 am by 7 am it might make it down to 39. There is a slight breeze, I can tell by the ripples on the pond and the leaves on my moringa tree. Early Thursday morning still looks concerning but hopefully this plus 3 Trend continues. Never less I'm still going through the drill except for No frost blankets


Ps Things look good for my friends down in West Palm Beach. 46 degrees hopefully that will trigger  the remaining  late bloomers :)
« Last Edit: February 03, 2021, 06:36:00 AM by bovine421 »
Tete Nene Julie Juliet Carrie Ice Cream Coconut Cream Little Gem  Dot  Mallika PPK  OS  Pina Colada Cotton Candy Buxton Spice Karen Michelle M-4 Beverly Marc Anthony White Pirie Lychee Cherilata Plantain Barbados Cherry

Tropheus76

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 923
    • East Orlando 9B
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #16 on: February 03, 2021, 08:49:48 AM »
So far so good. I haven't noticed it being as cold as predicted yet. My thermometer this morning said 40 and there was no moisture on the truck like there normally is. Supposedly tomorrow will be 33ish. I have blankets on all of my expensive mangoes and perfume tree with Christmas lights under them. The lights have been there since November and have protected them from the most frosts I have seen since I have lived here combined including a hard one back in December. Weird to get such cold weather so early. And now we enter the coldest month of the year with a bang. Hopefully all of my trees that care are old enough to withstand it at this point.

achetadomestica

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2243
    • FLORIDA 9b
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #17 on: February 03, 2021, 08:57:07 AM »
For me, TWC says 37, 34, and 35 degrees. WU says 37, 33, 35. At what point do I need to worry about my smallish mangos? Tuesday night has 10+ mph winds but Wednesday is supposedly down to 5mph.
If your trees are small and don't have Much hardwood on them. I would be looking to cover them and put an incandescent light  underneath.
It's better to be mumbling what a waste of time then to be trying to kick yourself in the back side

I agree better safe then sorry on the small trees. I cover the trees until I can't any more without the leaves
touching and then they are on their own? If you water heavy the day before the water comes out of the ground at 70F
and will help also. Years ago I went to the local Kiwannis and they saved me 30 full bedding sheets. They throw them
out anyway. I gave them a $20 donation and I keep them in a tote in my shed. Luckily my trees are all bigger now and
I don't use them much. As I have said I have a large pile of mulch and would mulch the trunks above graft if we were
having a substantial freeze

swincher

  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 155
    • Western WA (zone 8b, zone 10a greenhouse)
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #18 on: February 03, 2021, 01:44:51 PM »
GFS has changed for next week warmer.But keep look out very cold to the north.

Yup, but now the (extremely unreliable) 11-day frames show Texas in the crosshairs instead:



It seems like the ~10-day models have been predicting much more cold than has materialized, but there will definitely be a very cold air mass repeatedly dipping down further than usual over the next couple weeks, just a question of how far and where.

C24mccain

  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 198
    • Lakeland Florida zone 9b
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #19 on: February 03, 2021, 03:43:20 PM »
Here in at my place in Lakeland I was shocked this morning seeing 32* when the forecast was 40*. That is the biggest miss I have witnessed in monitoring temps the past 5 years. I was angry but I don't believe anything was harmed. I typically use accuweather but I monitor other sources as well. Typically my property is right on par with the accuweather forecast for Lakeland but I've seen it off by 5-6 degrees before. The 8* it was off last night is just frustrating. Glad it wasn't a 8* miss with a forecast of 34 or so.

achetadomestica

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2243
    • FLORIDA 9b
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #20 on: February 03, 2021, 06:27:37 PM »
Here in at my place in Lakeland I was shocked this morning seeing 32* when the forecast was 40*. That is the biggest miss I have witnessed in monitoring temps the past 5 years. I was angry but I don't believe anything was harmed. I typically use accuweather but I monitor other sources as well. Typically my property is right on par with the accuweather forecast for Lakeland but I've seen it off by 5-6 degrees before. The 8* it was off last night is just frustrating. Glad it wasn't a 8* miss with a forecast of 34 or so.

WOW what a miss. You must be in a cool pocket last night?
I watch the weather channel and my forecast was 37F last night.
I went out and checked at 5:00 and it was 40F. That last hour or so
can really drop but it didn't last night. Tonight my forecast is 33F

Jagmanjoe

  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 171
    • USA, Florida, Lakeland, 9A
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #21 on: February 03, 2021, 06:47:57 PM »
Here in at my place in Lakeland I was shocked this morning seeing 32* when the forecast was 40*. That is the biggest miss I have witnessed in monitoring temps the past 5 years. I was angry but I don't believe anything was harmed. I typically use accuweather but I monitor other sources as well. Typically my property is right on par with the accuweather forecast for Lakeland but I've seen it off by 5-6 degrees before. The 8* it was off last night is just frustrating. Glad it wasn't a 8* miss with a forecast of 34 or so.

WOW what a miss. You must be in a cool pocket last night?
I watch the weather channel and my forecast was 37F last night.
I went out and checked at 5:00 and it was 40F. That last hour or so
can really drop but it didn't last night. Tonight my forecast is 33F

Just an fyi achetadomestica, I live in South Lakeland, FL and at 5 this morning I was at 38.1 degrees (home weather station that has been pretty accurate).  Then by 6:15 I was down to 34.4 and it continued to drop until after 7 this morning when it bottomed out at 31.6 degrees.  Attached is a pic just before that at 31.8 degrees.


C24mccain

  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 198
    • Lakeland Florida zone 9b
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #22 on: February 03, 2021, 07:32:27 PM »
I just got home from work and checked my history on my weather station and it shows a low of 30* not 32*.. So that's a 10* miss. I'm over by the airport, less than a mile. I saw many areas on WU in my area around 32* but that was at 5:45 when I left for work. It obviously dropped more after I left. Interesting I don't even see any burn on banana leaves. The drop below 32 must have been very rapid with a rapid rebound. I hope we don't see a miss tonight like last night.

C24mccain

  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 198
    • Lakeland Florida zone 9b
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #23 on: February 03, 2021, 08:05:15 PM »
I like studying weather but I'm not an expert. I think if you were east of Lakeland the really cold air pocket didn't hit your area until after sunrise when temps were warming up therefore your low temps last night were probably somewhat in line with forecast. Those of us in Lakeland and west of Lakeland probably experienced colder than expected temps because the cold air mass moved in faster than forecasters predicted but it only got as far as Lakeland before sunrise. Now that the air mass has well moved in I predict we will be pretty close to our expected low temp forecast tonight. I don't think tonight will be a repeat of last night for me or anyone in central florida. We are expecting 33-34* for a low tonight. At 43* right now at 8pm. If anyone reads this and are in Lakeland or west of Lakeland did you experience far colder than expected temps last night?

bovine421

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1978
    • Shake Rag Rd Fl 9b
    • View Profile
Re: Polar vortex heading to FL next week?
« Reply #24 on: February 03, 2021, 09:38:19 PM »
Thanks everyone from Lakeland for your weather analysis.That was just the kick in the pants I needed to get off the couch. I improvised structures so my Frost blankets would minimally touch my flowers per Rob thanks
I ran out of frost blankets would have liked to cover Malika and sweet tart. Sweet tart is getting just too big. I am always refining the process and have come up with a couple new techniques to add to my Arsenal





After I finish this cup of coffee I will water the ground under the trees. The wind is like zero the pond looks like a sheet of  glass
« Last Edit: February 03, 2021, 11:16:47 PM by bovine421 »
Tete Nene Julie Juliet Carrie Ice Cream Coconut Cream Little Gem  Dot  Mallika PPK  OS  Pina Colada Cotton Candy Buxton Spice Karen Michelle M-4 Beverly Marc Anthony White Pirie Lychee Cherilata Plantain Barbados Cherry