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Messages - Luisport

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26
The flooding from rain is going to be bad. The 12Z HWRF predicts ***54 inches*** of rain in Mobile, AL despite having a much weaker storm.

28
475
WTNT34 KNHC 131744
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...SALLY CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STARTING ON MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 85.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.48 INCHES

29
Tropical Fruit Discussion / Re: Hurricane Paulette
« on: September 13, 2020, 10:55:29 AM »
Paulette now forecast to become a Major. Bad news for Bermuda...

11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 13

Location: 29.9°N 61.9°W

Moving: NW at 14 mph

Min pressure: 976 mb

Max sustained: 80 mph

30
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...HEAVY RAINS FROM SALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 84.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM W OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

32
@WeatherProf
The ‘right angle’ of the coast, and shallow waters, between SE LA & MS will funnel and raise levels. 10ft+ of surge now possible. Slow movement means 2 feet of rain is likely to fall in a narrow zone, and I suspect higher amounts. All this water is very very dangerous.
11:40 AM · Sep 13, 2020

33
Tropical Fruit Discussion / Re: Hurricane Paulette
« on: September 13, 2020, 07:51:56 AM »
PAULETTE MOVING CLOSER TO BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY THIS EVENING...

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/caf0c224d407a66046c67a15e6679766c12ea66395ca12759ec63f25c05c7395.png

34
5:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 13
Location: 27.0°N 84.0°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Hurricane warning now issued from Grand Isle, LA to Ocean Springs, MS

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake

Borgne...7-11 ft

Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft

Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft

Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft

MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft

AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka including Pensacola Bay,

Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

35
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
223 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

The National Weather Service in Miami has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northern Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 630 AM EDT.

* At 223 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
3 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Doppler radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Miami, Hialeah, Miami Beach, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne, South
Miami, Virginia Key, Kendall, Miami Gardens, North Miami, Doral,
Miami Lakes, Hialeah Gardens, Pinecrest, Opa-Locka, Miami Springs,
Sweetwater, Miami Shores, West Miami and El Portal.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the
warned area.

36
Tropical Fruit Discussion / Re: Hurricane Paulette
« on: September 12, 2020, 07:01:48 PM »
@WxPatel
Recon made their first pass into TS #Paulette and found a storm on the cusp of hurricane status with FL winds >70kts with SFMRs around 60kts in the western eyewall. The extrapolated pressure was 983mb so the NHC estimate of 70mph/987 was fairly close to reality.

37
Mandatory Evacuations for everyone outside the levee protection starting early tomorrow morning in Louisiana. Mostly Lake Catherine, Lake borgne Venetian Isles area needs to begin leaving early tomorrow. Mayor just ordered it.

38
@SteveWAFB
Wrapped a conference call with our colleagues at @NWSNewOrleans a few minutes ago. Early messaging is 8-12 feet of surge possible from mouth of the MS River east along the MS coast with current track of #Sally. Important to note that is very track/intensity dependent.

Total rainfall for Sally according to the 12Z HWRF. is 34 inches over or near Mobile.

39
Tropical Fruit Discussion / Re: Hurricane Sally
« on: September 12, 2020, 05:02:36 PM »
NHC has track East of New Orleans.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL192020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204957_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

From the NHC Advisory:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to Ochlockonee River Florida

40
Tropical Fruit Discussion / Re: Hurricane Sally
« on: September 12, 2020, 04:31:47 PM »
Latest rapid intensification indices give it a 10-15% chance of becoming a hurricane in next 24 hours.

41
Tropical Fruit Discussion / Re: Hurricane Sally
« on: September 12, 2020, 03:33:01 PM »
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7dddc398f3ab779e02c66de8a80af73f5fc57789c776bca3b74348ac41417232.gif

@RyanMaue
·
1 h
  Very concerned about Tropical Storm Sally blowing up into a powerful hurricane before slowing and tracking toward mouth of Mississippi on Monday. 

Worst case scenario is a major hurricane and/or 20-30 inches of rain from slow Sally

43
Tropical Fruit Discussion / Re: Hurricane Sally
« on: September 12, 2020, 02:09:29 PM »
Models showing it making landfall on LA area as Cat 2 or Cat 3 by tuesday...

44
Tropical Storm Sally now…

Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

…DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…25.6N 81.6W
ABOUT 35 MI…60 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

45
Tropical Fruit Discussion / Re: Hurricane Paulette
« on: September 12, 2020, 02:06:54 PM »
This is not a general hurricane thread.  Aboyami started a thread about Paulette because of its potential to landfall as a strong cat 2 or cat 3 on Bermuda, where he lives.

If you want to discuss Sally, you should start a new thread about its potential to strike the northern Gulf coast as a hurricane (or maybe those in the actual harm's way may want to start the thread).
Yes i was just waiting...

46
Tropical Fruit Discussion / Re: Hurricane Paulette
« on: September 12, 2020, 01:53:36 PM »
Hurricane Landfall on LA 8AM Tuesday...

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/255e84560cd373fe07213aaa5de65bb38d067d7b0b4fe6469752f5cab66e2bf9.png
TS Sally now...

Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 81.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

48
Tropical Fruit Discussion / Re: Hurricane Paulette
« on: September 12, 2020, 09:50:04 AM »
The problem will be the TD19...

@TheSteveCop
#TD19 is moving considerably further south than forecast and is now on the southern edge of the 00z EPS guidance from last night. This could allow the system to have more time to strengthen, which would be quite problematic (as shown by the HWRF)

49
Temperate Fruit Discussion / Re: My small fruit tree orchard
« on: September 11, 2020, 04:37:01 AM »
Hello luis, it could be anything but maybe a balbinsiana variegated.  I have one and the variegation loos the same.  Much thinner striping than AEAE.  It could be something else though, probably need to see a photo of the fruit to ID it.
Hello my friend. Now i know this is not a dessert variety, this bananas have seeds... so i will not buy it. Thank's!

50
Thank's!   ;)

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