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Author Topic: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian  (Read 1803 times)

Luisport

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #25 on: August 30, 2019, 05:56:08 AM »
From 5amNHC: “The risk of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast has increased, although it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge will occur.
The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and peninsula early next week has also increased, although it is too soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur.
Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.”

Luisport

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #26 on: August 30, 2019, 06:50:53 AM »
models are starting to agree now it looks like a southeast Florida landfall and a slow painful track west. the west coast needs to stay on top of this because if it tracks like the GFS or the UKMET shows the rain will be in the 15-20 inch range and if it gets into the gulf its a second chapter. very dangerous days ahead if nothing changes.

edzone9

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #27 on: August 30, 2019, 06:55:41 AM »
Good luck everyone!
Zone 10

zands

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #28 on: August 30, 2019, 08:05:45 AM »
 The CNN website is good for a quick take on this hurricanes path etc  Complete with video explanation by their weatherman. Plus CNN is good about updating the track and forecast.

johnb51

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #29 on: August 30, 2019, 12:15:17 PM »
Hurricane Central at weather.com is a good tracking map.  Also, National Hurricane Center website -  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
It could be tracking a little more northerly.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2019, 12:17:55 PM by johnb51 »
John

Clay

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #30 on: August 30, 2019, 01:03:56 PM »
Oh darn, I thought they were talking about Hurricane Durian. I LOVE durian!  ;)

"Never mind!"

Clay
<<<< Clay >>>>
Orange County, CA 92626

zands

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #31 on: August 30, 2019, 01:26:13 PM »
Hurricane Central at weather.com is a good tracking map.  Also, National Hurricane Center website -  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
It could be tracking a little more northerly.

They all say we are going to get prolonged rain. That's what did in Houston, but I think we cannot get more than half of the Houston treatment because this Hurricane will be moving though slowly. With Houston it hovered over the same place for at least 24 hours.

The South Florida Water Management District better have those massive pumps going, sending existing canal water out to the ocean, so that the canals can handle (accommodate) the upsoming Dorian inundation. We have a forum member who works for them. Maybe he will say something.

It could be tracking a little more northerly.

This storm started off with them saying it would land in Jacksonville so I paid no attention and did not gas up my car when it was easy to do. Over the last few days Dorian's landing point has headed further and further south. The European predictors always had it south of the US hurricane centers prediction.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2019, 01:31:25 PM by zands »

Luisport

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #32 on: August 30, 2019, 01:58:53 PM »

.EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS DORIAN IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...

2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 30
Location: 24.8°N 70.3°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

JoeP450

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #33 on: August 30, 2019, 01:59:39 PM »
Zand’s

I know it sounds a little silly but other night I went out at 1:00am and filled up my car and two 5 gallon tanks no problem, there was one other guy at the pump doing the same. If you really want to beat the crowds stay away from post work traffic ect and go later or earlier.


Be safe man,

-Joep450

Orkine

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #34 on: August 30, 2019, 10:10:31 PM »
Hurricane Central at weather.com is a good tracking map.  Also, National Hurricane Center website -  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
It could be tracking a little more northerly.

They all say we are going to get prolonged rain. That's what did in Houston, but I think we cannot get more than half of the Houston treatment because this Hurricane will be moving though slowly. With Houston it hovered over the same place for at least 24 hours.

The South Florida Water Management District better have those massive pumps going, sending existing canal water out to the ocean, so that the canals can handle (accommodate) the upsoming Dorian inundation. We have a forum member who works for them. Maybe he will say something.

It could be tracking a little more northerly.

This storm started off with them saying it would land in Jacksonville so I paid no attention and did not gas up my car when it was easy to do. Over the last few days Dorian's landing point has headed further and further south. The European predictors always had it south of the US hurricane centers prediction.
We are on the ball Zands.
We have been watching this for a while and working it actively with other water managers at the state, local and federal level.
It is a nasty and very dangerous looking storm.  I hope everyone takes it very seriously.  Even if the eye shifts away from us, its a sizeable, slow  moving storm with potential to deliver a lot of hurt.

We are shuttering up here in jupiter.

On a lighter note, I had several takes from the last batch of grafts from your scions.  Then we got some serious flooding a few days ago and a major storm looming, the future of those takes looks very suspect at this point.  Saturated soil, highwinds not a good combo.

Luisport

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #35 on: August 31, 2019, 03:18:04 AM »
https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1167629245415337984
 
@hurrtrackerapp
Seguir Seguir @hurrtrackerapp
Mais
The NHC is now forecasting #Dorian's winds to reach 150 mph by midday tomorrow, which is just short of Category 5.

kalan

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #36 on: August 31, 2019, 09:49:08 PM »
Glad to see the activity on this thread died off this morning.

We Floridians got quite lucky there .. wish I could say the same for our friends in the Bahamas.

Luisport

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #37 on: September 01, 2019, 08:00:51 AM »
000
WTNT35 KNHC 011152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO
HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/115245.png

zands

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #38 on: September 01, 2019, 08:30:03 AM »
Hurricane Central at weather.com is a good tracking map.  Also, National Hurricane Center website -  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
It could be tracking a little more northerly.

You are right. This National Hurricane Center tracking map is always being updated. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/115245.shtml?gm_track#contents     As of now Dorian is predicted no closer than 120 miles offshore from Ft Lauderdale.

Luisport

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #39 on: September 01, 2019, 09:43:39 AM »
 000
WTNT65 KNHC 011330
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
930 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE ABACO ISLANDS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum
sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).

The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching
the Abaco Islands. This is a life-threatening situation. Residents
there should take immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if
it passes over your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 200 mph
- Storm Surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas.
and will continue for several hours.

SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Blake/Zelinsky/Avila

Luisport

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #40 on: September 01, 2019, 09:51:15 AM »
Palm Beach County is now issuing a mandatory evacuation order for those who live in Zone A and Zone B in Palm Beach County.

The evacuations are effective as of 1 p.m. Sunday.


knlim000

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #41 on: September 01, 2019, 09:54:42 AM »
Keep in mind folks, your life is more valuable then the trees, don't risk your life to save the trees during the storm. You always plant out another tree.

Luisport

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #42 on: September 01, 2019, 11:00:58 AM »
...DORIAN BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN MODERN RECORDS FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
...CATASTROPHIC CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ABACOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES

Luisport

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #43 on: September 01, 2019, 12:48:31 PM »
763
WTNT65 KNHC 011644
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1245 pm EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON ELBOW CAY IN THE
ABACOS...


Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite data indicate that Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm
EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased
to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to
911 mb (26.90 inches).

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take
immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over
your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.

SUMMARY OF 1245 PM EDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

Future

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #44 on: September 01, 2019, 06:41:51 PM »
Do we have any forum members known to live in Bahamas?  Cat 5 making landfall in a small country ...that’s sobering.

nullzero

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #45 on: September 01, 2019, 07:00:58 PM »
The video coming out of Bahamas and Abaco island is heart wrenching.
Grow mainly fruits, vegetables, and herbs.

sytanta

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #46 on: September 01, 2019, 07:34:57 PM »
Wish everybody in the area is safe. Good luck to you all.

Future

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #47 on: September 01, 2019, 08:47:32 PM »
“Hurricane hunter crews from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) flying into the storm’s eyewall recorded winds gusting at more than 200mph”

Mango_Seed

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #48 on: September 01, 2019, 10:28:14 PM »
Hope you all stay safe. Sure hope this storm turns out to sea soon.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2019, 10:43:41 PM by Mango_Seed »

Luisport

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Re: Batten Down the Hatches....Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #49 on: September 02, 2019, 09:02:00 AM »
000
WTNT65 KNHC 021255
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
900 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LASHING GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama
Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as
winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents
in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later today.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 200 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of
the day, causing extreme destruction on the island.

SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 78.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

 

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