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Author Topic: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!  (Read 568 times)

Luisport

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Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« on: September 12, 2020, 02:07:49 PM »
Tropical Storm Sally now…

Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

…DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…25.6N 81.6W
ABOUT 35 MI…60 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
« Last Edit: September 12, 2020, 05:03:17 PM by Luisport »

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally
« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2020, 02:09:29 PM »
Models showing it making landfall on LA area as Cat 2 or Cat 3 by tuesday...

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Re: Hurricane Sally
« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2020, 03:17:11 PM »
This one whipped up fast!

Sally roared through last night, like a drunken party guest, knocking over a few potted plants and leaving a mess in the pool. Not too bad, at least there were no potted plants in the pool.

Hot Gulf will feed her even more, will be much worse when she strikes ground the next time.   

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Re: Hurricane Sally
« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2020, 03:33:01 PM »
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7dddc398f3ab779e02c66de8a80af73f5fc57789c776bca3b74348ac41417232.gif

@RyanMaue
·
1 h
  Very concerned about Tropical Storm Sally blowing up into a powerful hurricane before slowing and tracking toward mouth of Mississippi on Monday. 

Worst case scenario is a major hurricane and/or 20-30 inches of rain from slow Sally
« Last Edit: September 12, 2020, 03:46:02 PM by Luisport »

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally
« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2020, 04:31:47 PM »
Latest rapid intensification indices give it a 10-15% chance of becoming a hurricane in next 24 hours.

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally
« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2020, 05:02:36 PM »
NHC has track East of New Orleans.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL192020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204957_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

From the NHC Advisory:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to Ochlockonee River Florida
« Last Edit: September 12, 2020, 05:05:37 PM by Luisport »

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2020, 05:07:40 PM »
@SteveWAFB
Wrapped a conference call with our colleagues at @NWSNewOrleans a few minutes ago. Early messaging is 8-12 feet of surge possible from mouth of the MS River east along the MS coast with current track of #Sally. Important to note that is very track/intensity dependent.

Total rainfall for Sally according to the 12Z HWRF. is 34 inches over or near Mobile.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2020, 05:16:43 PM by Luisport »

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2020, 06:48:50 PM »
Mandatory Evacuations for everyone outside the levee protection starting early tomorrow morning in Louisiana. Mostly Lake Catherine, Lake borgne Venetian Isles area needs to begin leaving early tomorrow. Mayor just ordered it.

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2020, 03:52:19 AM »
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
223 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

The National Weather Service in Miami has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northern Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 630 AM EDT.

* At 223 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
3 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Doppler radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Miami, Hialeah, Miami Beach, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne, South
Miami, Virginia Key, Kendall, Miami Gardens, North Miami, Doral,
Miami Lakes, Hialeah Gardens, Pinecrest, Opa-Locka, Miami Springs,
Sweetwater, Miami Shores, West Miami and El Portal.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the
warned area.

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2020, 05:06:31 AM »
5:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 13
Location: 27.0°N 84.0°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Hurricane warning now issued from Grand Isle, LA to Ocean Springs, MS

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake

Borgne...7-11 ft

Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft

Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft

Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft

MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft

AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka including Pensacola Bay,

Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2020, 07:55:49 AM »
@WeatherProf
The ‘right angle’ of the coast, and shallow waters, between SE LA & MS will funnel and raise levels. 10ft+ of surge now possible. Slow movement means 2 feet of rain is likely to fall in a narrow zone, and I suspect higher amounts. All this water is very very dangerous.
11:40 AM · Sep 13, 2020

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2020, 08:07:32 AM »
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...HEAVY RAINS FROM SALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 84.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM W OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2020, 02:04:48 PM »
475
WTNT34 KNHC 131744
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...SALLY CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STARTING ON MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 85.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.48 INCHES

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2020, 02:20:24 PM »

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #15 on: September 13, 2020, 03:34:32 PM »
The flooding from rain is going to be bad. The 12Z HWRF predicts ***54 inches*** of rain in Mobile, AL despite having a much weaker storm.

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2020, 07:41:23 AM »
@JackSillin
The most notable change with overnight forecasts from NHC and model guidance is a shift east in the storm's expected track.

The threat to #NewOrleans is no longer quite as high as it was yesterday.

The threat to places like #Biloxi #MSwx and #Mobile #ALwx has increased.

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2020, 11:35:26 AM »
Mobile, Al is under Hurricane Warning

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #19 on: September 14, 2020, 11:49:15 AM »
Sally on RI mode now!

984.2 mb
(~ 29.07 inHg)

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #20 on: September 14, 2020, 12:03:19 PM »
Luis I noticed you like storms Now I notice your name Luis Port.

Ever read the Farmers Almanac founded by Robert B. Thomas

there is a thing on there you can see what the weather was like on your birthday
they say they have a %80 reliability
the weather  isn't available for EUROPE JUST The Usa , and Canada
See some of the weather links they are interesting
(I cannot help with what I already  read my computer sucks )
https://www.almanac.com/content/hurricane-forecast-facts-and-common-questions

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #21 on: September 14, 2020, 12:04:19 PM »
000
WTNT64 KNHC 141602
TCUAT4

Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED
TO A HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally
indicate the system has rapidly strengthened to a hurricane,
with maximum sustained winds of around 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09
inches).

A Special Advisory will be issued shortly to update the intensity
forecast for Sally.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #22 on: September 14, 2020, 12:14:13 PM »
Pensacola Beach apartments flooded on sound side (intracoastal side) due to surge. Ground floors, about 3 feet of water.

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #23 on: September 14, 2020, 12:37:43 PM »
increased again to 90mph.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 141630
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Special Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 87.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #24 on: September 14, 2020, 12:41:12 PM »
@Dave_Nussbaum

#UPDATE: #Sally will now be a Cat. 2 with 105 mph winds later today and Tuesday. There is a chance it could be even stronger (Cat. 3 starts at 111 mph). Landfall will be around midnight Wednesday along the MS Coast. #BeOn4 @WWLTV

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #26 on: September 14, 2020, 01:00:45 PM »
@ReedTimmerAccu
Flood waters continue to rise in Bay St Louis MS well ahead of #HurricaneSally. We are getting out while we can to reposition east toward the Biloxi area

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #27 on: September 14, 2020, 01:20:01 PM »
Buoy 110NM SSE of Pensacola...

Wave Height (WVHT):
20.3 ft

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #28 on: September 14, 2020, 01:40:18 PM »
Pensacola declares state of emergency for Hurricane Sally.

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #29 on: September 14, 2020, 03:08:04 PM »
14/1200Z UKMET showing nearly 47 inches of rain near Ft. Walton Beach by Friday morning.

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #30 on: September 14, 2020, 03:21:50 PM »
@JackSillin
Storm surge from #Sally has exceeded three feet at Shell Beach #LAwx.

The window for safe preparations along the LA/#MSwx/#ALwx/#FLwx coastline isn't going to last much longer, and with surge flooding now underway, some evacuation routes may no longer be passable.

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #31 on: September 14, 2020, 04:54:35 PM »
6 mph for a storm this large is a flooding nightmare:

4:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 14
Location: 28.8°N 87.4°W
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #32 on: September 15, 2020, 05:50:56 AM »
48 hour 06Z GFS total precip forecast has now shifted the area of 15-24+ inches east to include the entire Mobile to Pensacola region.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3a6c88b7bf8b6735f6922d22770d9f218fd7de4b1dd7a07f4a188a90015c04d2.png

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #33 on: September 15, 2020, 04:45:38 PM »
Sally

4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 15
Location: 29.5°N 88.1°W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 979 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

Luisport

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #34 on: September 16, 2020, 03:42:14 AM »
Another indication of just how powerful Sally has become is the fact that it has sucked the water (almost) out of Mobile Bay. DO NOT go out into the bay as this will quickly rise once the storm leaves.

TWC says up to 3 feet possible in Pensacola…

969mb now!


@webberweather

Seeing inbound velocities on the Mobile, AL radar of up to 110-115 knots about 3,500 ft AGL in the NE quad of #Sally’s eyewall atm. Standard reduction + gusting places #Sally’s current intensity ~95-100 kts, & potentially supports an upgrade to a category 3, major hurricane.

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Re: Hurricane Sally: NHC has track East of New Orleans!
« Reply #35 on: September 20, 2020, 09:35:17 PM »
reporting from near Pensacola...

Sally hit HARD. Projected 2-4 ft surge, actual measured in pensacola was about 6... but throw in large surf and higher surge up the bays, we measured just over 8 ft surge + waves at our location. far worse than 2-4 ft. people were not propared! I'll start a thread at some point. Had a 12x20ft garden/greenhouse 70% built that had 3 ft of water in it. The structure was SOLID and didn't move, but all the plants on the floor and second level shelves were swept away. lost many fruit trees, citrus, seedlings, propagated muscadine vines. Found an orange tree 1/2 mile away. More later with photos. Still in the clean up process.

 

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