El Nino Returning?

[phantomcrab]

This might mean interesting weather at the end of the year.
http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/05/el-ni%C3%B1o-coming-back

[Patrick]

http://youtu.be/IvmeUStFvz8

I couldn't resist!

[bsbullie]

Yes, should actually begin to affect us by mid summer.   For us in huuricane alley, hopefully this will keep any storms suppressed.  We wont mention that 1992 was also an el nino year and we know what happened there...

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html

[Mark in Texas]

Man, I hope this happens and so do the millions living in Texas.  Central Texas is and has been drying up.  Locally we haven't seen a decent rain going on 5 months and records dating back to 1896 reveal we have been the driest in recording history.  El Nino would also bring rain to SoCal which desperately needs it.

Bring it on!!!

[phantomcrab]

There also is a decrease in Atlantic hurricanes associated with El Nino due to wind shear.

[bsbullie]

There also is a decrease in Atlantic hurricanes associated with El Nino due to wind shear.

It is a lot more variables than wind shear.  And yes, while activity is usually less it doesnt mean that no storms will hit....Hurricane Andrew, in 1992, was during an El Nino year.

[phantomcrab]

NASA's take on this - http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/19may_elnino/

[Mark in Texas]

NASA's take on this - http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/19may_elnino/

Now....this is beginning to look really good!  Means rain, perhaps floods for Texas and SoCal.

Bring it on!

[bsbullie]

NASA's take on this - http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/19may_elnino/

Now....this is beginning to look really good!  Means rain, perhaps floods for Texas and SoCal.

Bring it on!

I think you are being over zealous.

[Mark in Texas]

I think you are being over zealous.

Perhaps, wishful thinking is more like it.  The NASA video is pretty compelling.

Your average rainfall is 62".  We're stuck in a severe to exceptional drought.

Bring it on!

[jc]

A cool wet winter and spring sounds like a mango bloom disaster.

[Mike T]

Forecasters here have been saying an El Nino is very likely for the past few months as indicated by high Pacific temps in critical areas. Now they are saying it is almost certain and eastern and northern Australia can expect warmer and drier conditions. I have had rain every day for the past 2 weeks and 18 inches last month when the dry season should be kicking in. Unusual seems to be the new usual on the weather front.

[Ed of Somis]

The ONLY thing certain about long-ranged weather predictions is: it is very uncertain. Here in SoCal, our weather has been drought (even considering we are a dry-Mediterranean climate). Certainly, weather is very cyclic. Looking over historical numbers over the years, it sure seems like patterns stick around for a few years...and then change (within reason). Doing my rain dance for next winter....

[Saltcayman]

YOKOHAMA, Japan — Climate change is already having sweeping effects on every continent and throughout the world’s oceans, scientists reported on Monday, and they warned that the problem was likely to grow substantially worse unless greenhouse emissions are brought under control.

The report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations group that periodically summarizes climate science, concluded that ice caps are melting, sea ice in the Arctic is collapsing, water supplies are coming under stress, heat waves and heavy rains are intensifying, coral reefs are dying, and fish and many other creatures are migrating toward the poles or in some cases going extinct.

[Mark in Texas]

Here's the current drought monitor for Texas.  It's not near as bad as in 2011, but, my county is included in the Exceptional category, dark red.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?TX

Much of California is in a Severe to Exceptional drought - http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA

It looks very promising for a El Nino event for SoCal and Texas who badly need rain, runoff type rains.  Check out the NASA/NOAA videos, the kelvin waves moving east are really kicking in.

[phantomcrab]

The El Nino forecast is being tuned down - http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html
Only time will tell.

[Mark in Texas]

Richard, Austin TV news last night had an interview with a U. of TX. climate specialist to discuss the latest NWS data release and said that it had not formed yet nor was there any atmospheric influence but the probabilities for a mild to moderate El Nino event is likely to peak come winter.

The record 1997 El Nino had catastrophic influence around Texas, especially the central area - continuous storms, devastating EF5 tornado at Jarrell (north of Austin), record floods, rise in highland lakes of 1' per hour.  We really need this event!  (crosses fingers)

[ricshaw]

In today's news:

Warming Earth heads for record

El Nino still likely to show up, raise heat

By Seth Borenstein
Associated Press

WASHINGTON - Earth is on pace to tie or even break the mark for the hottest year on record, federal meteorologists say.
That's because global heat records have kept falling in 2014, with September the latest example.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Monday that last month the globe averaged 60.3 degrees Fahrenheit. That was the hottest September in 135 years of record keeping.
It was the fourth monthly record set this year, along with May, June and August.
NASA, which measures temperatures slightly differently, had already determined that September was record-warm.
The first nine months of 2014 have a global average temperature of 58.72 degrees, tying with 1998 for the warmest first nine months on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.
"It's pretty likely" that 2014 will break the record for hottest year, said NOAA climate scientist Jessica Blunden.
The reason involves El Nino a warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects weather worldwide. In 1998, the year started off superhot because of an El Nino But then that El  nino disappeared and temperatures moderated slightly toward the end of the year.
This year has no El Nino yet, but forecasts for the rest of the year show a strong chance that one will show up, and that weather will be warmer than normal, Blunden said.
If 2014 breaks the record for hottest year, that also should sound familiar: 1995,1997,1998, 2005 and 2010 all broke NOAA records for the hottest years since records started being kept in 1880.

[luc]

Niños and Niñas come and go , I am more worried about the radiation from Fukushima poisoning all the fish in the Pacific ocean

[ricshaw]

Niños and Niñas come and go , I am more worried about the radiation from Fukushima poisoning all the fish in the Pacific ocean

All the fish in the Pacific Ocean?

Southern California needs water (winter rain).

[luc]

Niños and Niñas come and go , I am more worried about the radiation from Fukushima poisoning all the fish in the Pacific ocean

All the fish in the Pacific Ocean?

Southern California needs water (winter rain).

Look it up , all the fish in our northern hemisphere from Canada to Southern California show signs of radiation , banks of sea urchins are disappearing etc....

[nullzero]

Niños and Niñas come and go , I am more worried about the radiation from Fukushima poisoning all the fish in the Pacific ocean

All the fish in the Pacific Ocean?

Southern California needs water (winter rain).

Look it up , all the fish in our northern hemisphere from Canada to Southern California show signs of radiation , banks of sea urchins are disappearing etc....

I would not worry too much due to the dilution of the vast amount of water. However, if you rely on solely seafood from the pacific ocean as the main source of protein... then it may be a bigger health issue. As for the fish, survival of the fittest. There will be weaker sea animals that will perish to radiation, while other ones will thrive and adapt. There are microbes that even feed off radiation, now if we could multiply them and come up with a way to fight the constant stream of radiation from Fukushima it would help.

If we had more then 1 Fukushima type disaster going into the Ocean it would be cause for concern, there is already several nuclear reactors dumped into the worlds oceans from subs etc. the last 60 years.

[Saltcayman]

Remember bikini atoll. Still radioactive 60 years later.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/02/bikini-atoll-nuclear-test-60-years

[Jani]

Regarding winter..what can we expect in Florida? A colder winter?

[ricshaw]

We have already been told to limit our intake of Pacific Ocean fish due to mercury pollution...  I guess it will only get worst.

Back to El Nino, California needs rain to start the end of the drought.  Experts are saying that California needs more than a foot of rain, in one month, to end the drought.