Author Topic: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?  (Read 1461 times)

Orkine

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johnb51

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2022, 09:44:59 AM »
The Weather Channel has said just the opposite, so I guess we'll see.  I'd sure like to see the lychee tree bloom!
John

fliptop

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2022, 10:33:44 AM »
Local SWFL weather said it's supposed to be a warmer, drier winter as a result of La Nina. But they also said it'll be the 3rd La Nina in a row, and last year we got below freezing a couple times. I hope for no freezes and frost.

I skimmed over what you linked to, Orkine, and think this is the applicable part to us:

"The Southeast will experience some shivers, especially during the month of January. Fortunately, for the snowbirds, February will likewise warm the region to near-normal winter season temperatures overall."

Not sure what qualifies as "shivers", but the above kinda sounds like last winter.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2022, 10:37:33 AM by fliptop »

K-Rimes

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2022, 11:04:13 AM »
It has been unusually cold in California already re: La Niña. Hopefully you all don't get crazy frosts or anything out there. I had to close up my greenhouse for the first time yesterday.

Orkine

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2022, 11:43:06 AM »
Conventional wisdom is sustained La Nina conditions and you can expect a drier, warmer, winter,  That was my expectation for this winter which is why the almanac story caught my eye.

We will see which we get.



Galatians522

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2022, 02:22:17 PM »
I think part of the problem is that la nina/el nino are generalized weather predictions. A winter that is cooler overall, but has no major frost events may actually be better for fruit growing than a "generally warm" year that has a couple dips below 32. Actually, some of the worst freezes south Florida has experienced have been in dry years. I remember reading an account of one year in particular (around 1920) in which lake Okechobee had dried up all the way to Torey Island. It stayed dry long enough that people planted crops (mostly beans) in the lake bottom. I can't remember the exact number, but they had something like 20 frosts and freezes that year. I would prepare for a frost/freeze this year and then be thankful if it didn't happen.

Squam256

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2022, 08:57:13 AM »
We can only hope. Currently we’re well above average in nighttime lows.

My (unscientific) prediction is for another warm winter where we are in Southeast Florida. We don’t really get winters here anymore.

JakeFruit

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #7 on: November 14, 2022, 09:27:23 AM »

Last night was the very first night I stepped outside for the final dog walk of the day and thought about maybe grabbing a light jacket. I'll never see a hard-freeze where I live, time to start zone-pushing...


All my mangoes are currently pushing or hardening-off a flush. I girdled a bunch of branches back in July to encourage flowering on some varieties that are being stubborn about flowering (Pineapple Pleasure, Guava, Orange Sherbett). Unfortunately, my lawn guy haphazardly spread granule fertilizer a few weeks ago, a lot of it ended up under trees; I'm worried they just received an infusion of nitrogen to work with. Hopefully it's a dry winter, drought might be my best hope for seeing flowers this season.

Julie

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #8 on: November 14, 2022, 01:24:27 PM »
I truly hope for a colder winter this year for mango & lychee blooms.  Last winter wasn't even a real winter at all but the year before that was (not sure if that was related to COVID and less people driving?).  The climate in Miami is really changing in the winter and we don't seem to get cold weather anymore like we did when I first moved here 10 years ago.  I love it when the house is cold inside and we don't need to use A/C.  Not that I would want to live in a snowy climate again, but still cold weather please!

FloridaGrower69

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #9 on: November 14, 2022, 04:03:29 PM »
A friend at the National Weather Service who works with NHC running forecast modeling seems to think there will be increasingly powerful winter storms in the Pacific next 2 years…which in-turn will cycle unusually deep Arctic air further south.  These polar vortices may bring freezes further south. My friend at Indrio who grows citrus welcomes a good cold snap to get the citrus flowering on time, but is weary of freezes in central Florida.

Me: I wont bet on politics or weather these days. ;) Tarps and heaters ready regardless.

achetadomestica

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #10 on: November 14, 2022, 05:00:50 PM »

If you guess enough times sooner or later you'll be right


JulianoGS

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #11 on: November 14, 2022, 05:40:41 PM »
Tricky question, those that have trees blooming at this stage would prefer warmer winter, otherwise a nice cold winter would be appreciated.
Be very careful and mindful of what you sow, for whatever a man sows, that he will also reap.

Pokeweed

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #12 on: November 15, 2022, 07:15:35 AM »
Over here between all of you in S. Tx we just keep hoping to avoid really bad freezes like 2021. In a normal year we get a few dips into the high '20s. First time in the high '30s for the Winter this morning. D

Galatians522

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #13 on: December 21, 2022, 04:12:59 AM »
Any thoughts on who was right at this point? Was it Farmer's Alminac or the TV guy?

Squam256

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #14 on: December 22, 2022, 11:34:38 AM »
Any thoughts on who was right at this point? Was it Farmer's Alminac or the TV guy?

So far in the tricounty southeast area where we’re located, I believe we’ve been above historical average in our nightly low *every single night* this month. This cold front that’s approaching will give us a week of temps below or right about at historic average.

 After 1 week, the lows shoot up to the upper 60sF (so basically 10+ degrees above average).

So thus far I’d say we’ve had yet another warm winter. We’ve also seen a little too much rainfall as well. This one week event will spring some bloom on some trees here while plenty others will stay dormant.

Hopefully the second half of January brings enough cold to get a good bloom on both mangos and lychees. An uninterrupted 2 weeks with lows below 60F is what we want (and almost never get anymore). The central and gulf coast part of Florida will probably get that at least.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2022, 11:48:32 AM by Squam256 »

palingkecil

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #15 on: December 22, 2022, 12:15:09 PM »
Just came across this article:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/05/26/year-without-a-summer-1816-mount-tambora/84855694/

This year in my zone 10A So-Cal seems much colder than the last 2 years. My fig trees did not even shed their leaves and keep produced fruit the last 2 winters, but this year all their leaves are gone by the end of November.
We have had a few small volcano eruptions in Indonesia this year.
Some theory says the eruption is earth's natural way to cool itself down.
Not into politic, but maybe it is a possibility they can drill some holes near volcanos all over the world to combat global warming?
« Last Edit: December 22, 2022, 12:41:46 PM by palingkecil »

1rainman

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #16 on: December 22, 2022, 02:12:11 PM »
Usually if the east coast is above average either the west coast Europe or Asia will be below average. So just speaking on the east side of the US. Florida is normally dry this time of year. Yet we've had decent rain fall and above average temps other than the one cold front in October. The cold weather coming is pretty normal then back to above average temps. Weather seems to be getting warmer in Florida. Global warming could play a role but that's only about 1 degree. Seems to be the urban heat effect from development. North of Florida is in for some record lows but the ocean is so hot from record breaking summer heat that by the time the front reaches south Florida it's not anywhere near a record low and actually pretty normal cold spell for this time of year. A good freeze would help my adult grapes. I got my seedlings wrapped in plastic with a water jug on them.

Daintree

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #17 on: December 22, 2022, 04:15:06 PM »
Although I love to read through it, the farmers almanac, and the old farmers almanac also, rates no more than chance (52%) in it's predictions.

I don't think anyone can really predict the weather more then 10 days out. It is just too complex of a system...

Carolyn

K-Rimes

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #18 on: December 22, 2022, 04:17:39 PM »
Although I love to read through it, the farmers almanac, and the old farmers almanac also, rates no more than chance (52%) in it's predictions.

I don't think anyone can really predict the weather more then 10 days out. It is just too complex of a system...

Carolyn

I think there is some credence to La Niña and El Niño predictions from NOAA, especially as you get into winter. Sea water temps at certain depths are quite efficient predictors of seasonal norms or extremes. Not sure how applicable it is for FL but it's been quite accurate over the years I've lived in CA (10 years).

Orkine

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #19 on: December 24, 2022, 02:45:23 AM »
Any thoughts on who was right at this point? Was it Farmer's Alminac or the TV guy?
Interestingly, both conventional and farmers Almanac may be on the same side of this one, on closer examination. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLYDnhnOZcI) had a little titbit. 
Typically, a strong La Nina often results in warmer dryer conditions in south Florida over winter.
Apparently we have had two other period in recent history with back to back to back (3 La Nina years in a row), this year being the third occurrence.  The only other two times, third year of La Nina resulted in a reversed trend with colder and wetter winter than normal.
The speaker addresses the effects of La Nina starting at the 20 minute mark on the video and talks bout the observation for a third year of sustained La Nina at the 23:19 mark and the 25:12 mark approximately.

Enjoy.



« Last Edit: January 13, 2023, 05:54:06 PM by Orkine »

Honest Abe

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #20 on: December 25, 2022, 08:44:54 PM »
Winters are nearly extinct here. This front is only an extension of a low pressure system with excessive moisture leading to an event here that is blocking the solar heater with high and low level clouds making it colder then fronts from recent years that usually bring blue-bird days and brisk north winds.

In this lifetime-charterboat fisherman’s opinion, This will be another endless summer with a seldom dip into the 50s for a day or two. Doubt we will even break 50 again.

johnb51

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #21 on: December 26, 2022, 12:33:09 PM »
Winters are nearly extinct here. This front is only an extension of a low pressure system with excessive moisture leading to an event here that is blocking the solar heater with high and low level clouds making it colder then fronts from recent years that usually bring blue-bird days and brisk north winds.

In this lifetime-charterboat fisherman’s opinion, This will be another endless summer with a seldom dip into the 50s for a day or two. Doubt we will even break 50 again.
You're probably right, Abe.  Too bad.  Winters used to be awesome here.
John

1rainman

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #22 on: December 26, 2022, 02:43:36 PM »
There's a good chance of another cold front like this in January. other than that the weather prediction is highs in the 80s. We are permanently above average. Used to be highs in the 70s in December and January with an occasional two or three days of cold like this one. Though if there is a major volcano eruption we will get a really cold winter globally. Which actually happens quite often. I think back in 2009 or whenever it was we had record lows and snow in north Florida there was some volcano somewhere which clouds up the sky with smoke lowering global temps. So it's possible to get a cold winter but on average it's been getting warmer.

johnb51

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #23 on: December 27, 2022, 12:12:57 PM »
Ok.
John

Orkine

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Re: Colder than normal winter in Florida 22/23?
« Reply #24 on: January 13, 2023, 06:00:04 PM »
Any thoughts on who was right at this point? Was it Farmer's Alminac or the TV guy?
Interestingly, both conventional and farmers Almanac may be on the same side of this one, on closer examination. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLYDnhnOZcI) had a little titbit. 
Typically, a strong La Nina often results in warmer dryer conditions in south Florida over winter.
Apparently we have had two other period in recent history with back to back to back (3 La Nina years in a row), this year being the third occurrence.  The only other two times, third year of La Nina resulted in a reversed trend with colder and wetter winter than normal.
The speaker addresses the effects of La Nina starting at the 20 minute mark on the video and talks bout the observation for a third year of sustained La Nina at the 23:19 mark and the 25:12 mark approximately.

Enjoy.
Rekindling this discussion.

Could we have both a warmer than normal winter (above average temperature over the season) and some some really cold event scattered here and there?   Where does this combination of deep cold and warm spells stand with regards to mango and or lychee?

 

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